Jinwu Financial News | According to Minsheng Securities Research Report, Haidilao (06862) released a 2023 performance forecast. Judging from the operating income situation, the company expects annual continuous operating revenue of not less than 41.4 billion yuan/year-on-year increase of not less than 33.3%, and an increase of no less than 65.9% over the same period in '19. The main reason is that the reduction in epidemic disturbances in 23 contributed to an increase in passenger traffic and an improvement in business performance in Haidilao. Judging from the net profit situation, the company expects net profit from continuing operations to be no less than 4.4 billion yuan/no less than 168.79% year-on-year increase in 23, up no less than 71.8% from the same period in '19, mainly due to increased Haidilao's turnover rate and improved operating efficiency; due to exchange rate fluctuations, Haidilao 23H1 net exchange earnings of 193 million yuan, and net exchange losses at 23H2. Excluding the impact on foreign exchange gains/losses, 23H1 net profit is expected to increase by no less than 10%.
According to the bank, the “Woodpecker Plan” and the “Hard Bone Plan” drive the optimization of the company's store business conditions and superimpose the company's initiatives to actively experiment with detailed exploration of sub-brands, personalized stores and services. The company is expected to build a second growth curve through a new segmented circuit in the future. It is recommended to focus on a steady recovery in the company's operating data in the short term, and look at the growth space brought about by restarting and expanding stores and exploring segmented tracks in the medium to long term. The company's organizational strength/supply chain barriers are deep, internal reforms are progressing, combined with post-epidemic recovery and offline passenger flow restoration, and the opening of the dine-in scenario, which is expected to gradually return to a steady state of operation and promote a highly flexible recovery in performance. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 44.21/53.70/6.093 billion yuan in 23/24/25. The corresponding PE value is 16X/13X/12X, maintaining the “recommended” rating.