The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that since 2023, the charging pile industry has entered an upward phase of prosperity, and industry chain performance has accelerated; structurally, it is optimistic that liquid-cooled overcharging will achieve 1-10 emissions. As the high-pressure fast charging cycle for new vehicles begins, liquid-cooled overcharging is a necessary part of energy supplementation. Under the impetus of car companies and energy companies, construction is expected to accelerate, driving the upgrading of the supporting industry chain. Investors are advised to seize the opportunities to upgrade the liquid-cooled overcharging industry chain and the flexibility of Huawei's liquid-cooled overcharging industry chain.

▍ The main views of CICC are as follows:

Accelerated launch of high-pressure quick-charging models, supporting requirements for catalytic liquid-cooled supercharging piles.

Under the +400V affordable catalyst for the new vehicle cycle, 800V high-voltage fast charging models are expected to accelerate penetration with their advantages in energy replenishment efficiency, power output, and intelligent experience. Compared with traditional fast charging, high-voltage fast charging models can reach more than 600kW, and the charging current is as high as 600A. The heating during the charging process is more obvious. The cooling requirements for charging piles are increased, and catalytic liquid-cooled overcharging piles are required.

Liquid-cooled supercharging piles use air-cooling/liquid-cooled module+liquid-cooled gun cable, which can meet strong cooling requirements under high-power charging, reduce cable weight and improve ease of use. Although the current number of high-pressure fast charging models is still small, pre-construction of liquid-cooled overcharging piles is essential to ease consumers' concerns about energy supplementation and promote sales of high-pressure fast charging models, and is expected to be released ahead of demand side volume.

The car company first announced the agency's overcharging network, and the liquid-cooled overcharging economy is expected to gradually improve as the number of high-pressure fast charging models increases and costs are reduced.

Due to the higher cost and lower economy than ordinary quick charging piles, it is estimated that the internal rate of return of “half liquid cooling” and “full liquid cooling” solutions is 9.2%/4.6%, respectively. Therefore, currently, liquid-cooled overcharging pile construction is dominated by car companies, energy companies, and other companies that have a high tolerance for the return on investment period; however, looking ahead, as the number of 800V models increases and the cost of charging equipment is reduced on a large scale, the economy of liquid-cooled overcharging piles is expected to continue to improve, and third-party operators are expected to accelerate the layout.

Liquid-cooled overcharging drives the industrial chain upgrade, and the Chinese market size is nearly 9 billion yuan in 2026.

Compared with ordinary fast charging piles, liquid-cooled overcharging needs to support higher voltage and current charging processes, cooling requirements have greatly increased, and drive-related components have been upgraded and value increased. On the one hand, components need to adapt to higher voltage and current, and on the other hand, the cooling method for some components has changed from air cooling/natural cooling to liquid cooling.

Driven by car companies, energy companies, etc., the neutral forecast is that the number of domestic liquid-cooled overcharging stations is expected to reach 45,000 in 2026. The total corresponding liquid-cooled overcharging market space is expected to reach 8.73 billion yuan, and the CAGR is 120.6% in 2023-2026, of which the main engine market space exceeds 7.74 billion yuan and the terminal market space is nearly 1 billion yuan.

risks

Sales of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations, mass production of 800V models fell short of expectations, and overcharged pile construction fell short of expectations.