The Zhitong Finance App learned that Everbright Securities released a research report saying that maintaining the Haidilao (06862) “buy” rating has gone through the most difficult period. It will restart stores in 24. On the other hand, the company is also expected to increase its dividend rate and is optimistic about the company's long-term development. The company currently has plenty of cash flow. On the one hand, it will be used for sub-brand expansion, and on the other hand, the company is also considering increasing the dividend ratio. The company's operating growth in '24 is highly deterministic, and the combined dividend ratio has increased, which will further enhance the company's investment appeal.

Incident: The company released its 2023 performance forecast. It is estimated that the revenue from continuing operations in 2023 will not be less than 41.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of no less than 33.3%; net profit from continuing operations is expected to be no less than 4.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of not less than 168.3%. Among them, the company expects 23H2's continuing business revenue to be no less than 22.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of not less than 41.7%; the net profit from continuing operations is expected to be no less than 2.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of no less than 36.8%.

The main views of Everbright Securities are as follows:

23H2 passenger flow improvements sped up revenue growth.

The company expects 23H2's continuing business revenue to be no less than 22.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of no less than 41.7%, and the revenue growth rate improved month-on-month, mainly due to the increase in traffic and business performance of Haidilao restaurants due to the optimization of control measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and economic recovery. 23H2 Company as a whole showed a trend of declining customer unit prices and a recovery in passenger flow. 23H2's turnover rate continues to improve. 23Q4 is the peak season for hot pot consumption, and the turnover rate is higher than 23Q3. In terms of customer unit prices, due to the increased overall discount promotion of 23H2 in the catering industry, the company also increased its promotional efforts, and the customer unit price of 23H2 decreased month-on-month compared to 23H1.

With the gradual recovery of the turnover rate, the company is expected to restart its store opening plan in '24.

On the same store side, since 23H1 is still recovering after the epidemic, it is expected that 24H1's same-store revenue will gradually improve under a low base, and the company's revenue performance is still worth looking forward to.

23H2 has maintained steady growth in net profit due to increased labor cost pressure.

The company's profit improved drastically in 2023, and the net profit from continuing operations for the whole year is expected to increase by no less than 168.3% year-on-year, thanks to the increase in the turnover rate of Haidilao restaurants and improvements in operating efficiency; the net profit of continuing operations in 2023 is expected to increase by no less than 71.8% compared to 2019 before the pandemic, thanks to the expansion of the Haidilao restaurant network. Affected by exchange rate fluctuations, the company received a net exchange income of about 193 million yuan, and 23H2 generated a net exchange loss. If the impact on exchange profit and loss is not taken into account, 23H2 net profit increased by no less than 10% compared to the 23H1 forecast. The net interest rate is expected to decline sequentially, mainly due to an increase in employee costs. During the pandemic, due to limited turnover, stores reduced manpower; as the store turnover rate steadily rebounded, the company increased the number of employees accordingly, leading to cost increases.