Agenus Inc. (NASDAQ:AGEN) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 14% in the last month. But only the myopic could ignore the astounding decline over three years. The share price has sunk like a leaky ship, down 84% in that time. Arguably, the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. Of course the real question is whether the business can sustain a turnaround. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.
Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.
Agenus wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
Over the last three years, Agenus' revenue dropped 2.3% per year. That's not what investors generally want to see. The share price fall of 23% (per year, over three years) is a stern reminder that money-losing companies are expected to grow revenue. This business clearly needs to grow revenues if it is to perform as investors hope. Don't let a share price decline ruin your calm. You make better decisions when you're calm.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. You can see what analysts are predicting for Agenus in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Agenus had a tough year, with a total loss of 67%, against a market gain of about 25%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 12% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Agenus is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...
Agenus is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.