Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that it was previously emphasized that medium- to long-term investment value in the e-commerce express delivery industry is being prepared, and that the medium- to long-term value after leading companies overfell. In terms of volume, the e-commerce express delivery industry is resilient on the demand side, and the bank is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 10% in 2024.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that it was previously emphasized that medium- to long-term investment value in the e-commerce express delivery industry is being prepared, and that the medium- to long-term value of leading companies is prominent after the decline. In terms of volume, the e-commerce express delivery industry is resilient on the demand side, and the bank is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 10% in 2024. In terms of price, the bank believes that the e-commerce express delivery industry no longer has a basis for a large-scale price war across the network. It is expected that industry supervision will superimpose the profit demands of terminal franchisees, and price competition may ease in 2024.
The bank's judgment on the overdrop: Taking Yunda as an example, the current PB is only 1.1 times, close to the valuation of infrastructure services. It does not reflect the medium- to long-term demand in the express delivery industry. At the same time, it fails to reflect Yunda (002120.SZ)'s business volume growth rate once again exceeding the industry and future marginal changes or maximum; Yuantong (600233.SH) is still underestimated; it is concerned that Shentong (002468.SZ) continues to optimize efforts.
The bank emphasized that SF Express (002352.SZ) is a complex of value* growth. In response to market concerns about the company's revenue growth rate, the bank's analysis suggests that there are two possible scenarios: the first is a beta opportunity, that is, if the overall economic recovery exceeds expectations, it will drive the company's time-sensitive express delivery revenue growth rate to exceed expectations; the second is an alpha opportunity. The bank expects the Ezhou Airport Transfer Center to be put into operation for about 1 year in the second half of '24. Through supply optimization, factors such as expanding the radiation range of time-sensitive products, price optimization, and domestic-international dual cycles will accelerate revenue.
Overall, the bank believes that one of the company's current highlights is at the bottom of the valuation: corresponding to less than 17 times PE in 2024, the bottom of the company's valuation since its listing. Second, we have always been active: focus on our core business, continue to explore internally, and strengthen our operating base. The third step is to look at Ezhou: The trip continues to be optimistic about further building a domestic and international double cycle around Ezhou, which will help the company's ecosystem take another leap forward.
The main views of Huachuang Securities are as follows:
1. Business volume performance of listed companies: Due to the Spring Festival stalled, Tongda's business volume increased significantly over the same period last year.
The year-on-year growth rate of business volume in January and January: Shentong (124.53%) > Yunda (96.09%) > Yuantong (91.79%) > SF Express (19.85%). SF Express's net component volume grew by 28.30% year over year.
Due to the staggered impact of the Spring Festival holiday (2024 Spring Festival holiday in February, 2023 Spring Festival holiday in mid-late January), Tongda Express maintained a significant year-on-year increase in business volume growth. Yunda surpassed the industry's growth rate for the first time since achieving a lapse of 20 months last month, and this month's growth rate was second only to Shentong. SF Express achieved a relatively rapid growth rate in the same period last year.
2. Month-on-month: Yuantong increased by 0.4% in January, Shentong by 5.9%, Yunda by 0.4%, and SF by 1.5%.
3. According to data from the State Post Office, during the Spring Festival holiday period (February 10-17), 1,079 million express parcels were collected, and the average daily collection volume increased by 145.2% compared with the 2023 Spring Festival holiday; 641 million express parcels were delivered, and the average daily delivery volume increased by 82.1% year-on-year. Since the beginning of the Spring Festival travel season (January 26 to February 17), 5.655 billion express parcels have been collected, an increase of 30.8% over the same period of the 2023 Spring Festival travel season; 5.994 billion express parcels have been delivered, an increase of 21% over the same period of the 2023 Spring Festival travel season. The growth in business volume shows a boom in express delivery demand.
2. The growth rate of express delivery revenue of listed companies: Shentong leads the year-on-year growth rate.
Revenue growth rate in January: Shentong (82.61%) > Yuantong (71.48%) > Yunda (61.51%) > SF Express (19.46%); SF Express did not include the net revenue growth rate of 20.72%.
3. Single ticket revenue: Accessibility means that single ticket revenue declined year-on-year and improved month-on-month.
In January and January, single ticket revenue: Yuantong 2.45 yuan, -10.6% (-0.29 yuan); Yunda's single ticket revenue was 2.27 yuan, -17.5% (-0.48 yuan); Shentong 2.18 yuan, -18.9% (-0.51 yuan), the biggest drop; SF Express 17.00 yuan, -0.4% year-on-year, and SF Express's net ticket revenue decreased 5.92% year over year.
2. On a month-on-month basis, SF Express increased 6.3% (+1 yuan); in the Tongda system, Shentong increased 0.5% month-on-month (+0.01 yuan), Yunda increased 1.3% (+0.03 yuan) month-on-month (+0.03 yuan), and Yuantong increased 1.2% (+0.03 yuan) month-on-month.