Along with the gradual introduction of new 24H2 electronic terminal products, it is expected to drive revenue from the foundry industry to show a quarterly increase trend.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Haitong Securities released a research report saying that revenue from the manufacturing side of the semiconductor industry (including fabs such as Tower Semiconductor and GlobalFoundries) is expected to decline month-on-month in 24Q1E due to factors such as the low season in the industry. The bank believes that the gradual introduction of new 24H2 electronic terminal products will hopefully drive revenue from the foundry sector to show a quarter-on-quarter increase trend. Excellent semiconductor equipment companies will face structural growth opportunities throughout 2024E, including Foundry/Logic for advanced manufacturing processes, and HBM for DRAM, showing a continuous growth trend; the bank believes that excellent semiconductor equipment companies in mainland China will also benefit from the explosion in demand for semiconductor equipment in corresponding fields.
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The main contents are as follows:
Tower Semiconductor estimates 24Q1 revenue of around $325 million.
According to the 23Q4 results disclosed by TowerSemiconductor, 23Q4 achieved revenue of US$352 million, down 12.66% year on year and 1.68% month on month; gross profit of US$84 million, down 32.80% year on year, down 3.45% month on month; gross profit margin of 23.86%, down 7.15 pct year on year and 0.44 pct month on month. Revenue for the full year of 2023 was US$1.42 billion, a decrease of 15.48% from US$1.68 billion in the same period in 2022; gross profit of US$354 million, a decrease of 24.03% from US$466 million in the same period in 2022; and gross profit margin of 24.93%, a decrease of 2.81 pct from 27.74% in the same period in 2022. The company's revenue forecast for 2024Q1 is expected to be in the range of around $325 million and lower by 5%.
Global Foundries reported an average revenue of $1.52 billion in 24Q1, down 18.02% year over year.
According to the 23Q4 results disclosed by Global Foundries, 23Q4 achieved revenue of US$1,854 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11.76% and a slight increase of 0.11% month-on-month; the adjusted gross margin of EBITDA was 41.70%, up 2.60 pcts year-on-year, and 5.70 pcts month-on-month. Revenue for the full year of 2023 was US$7.392 billion, down 8.83% from US$8.108 billion in the same period in 2022; adjusted EBITDA gross margin was 37.4%, a decrease of 0.7 pct from 38.1% in the same period in 2022; the equivalent number of 12-inch wafers shipped was 2,211 million wafers, a decrease of 10.56% from 2.472 million wafers in the same period of 2022. According to revenue by downstream application area, the company's revenue in 2023 from smartphone terminals, communication facilities & data centers, the Internet of Things, and the automotive sector was US$3,023 million, US$863 million, US$1,395 million, and US$1,046 million, respectively, up -19%, -39%, -6%, and 180% year-on-year respectively. Looking ahead to 2024Q1E, the company expects to achieve revenue in the range of US$1,500,000 to US$1,540 billion, with an average revenue of US$1.52 billion, a decrease of 17.44% month-on-month and 18.02% year-on-year.
Applied Materials is optimistic about the growth in demand for equipment in fields such as 2024E advanced manufacturing processes, NAND, and DRAM (HBM).
According to the Q1F24 data disclosed by Applied Materials (as of 2024.01), the company achieved revenue of 6.707 billion US dollars, a slight decrease of 0.47% year over year and a slight decrease of 0.24% month on month; gross profit margin was 47.9%, up 0.6 pct month on month, and 1.1 pct year on year. By segment, the semiconductor equipment sector achieved revenue of 4.909 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4.90% and an increase of 0.53% month-on-month; the global service business sector achieved revenue of 1,476 billion US dollars, up 7.82% year-on-year, and a slight increase of 0.34% month-on-month. Looking ahead to Q2F24, the company expects to achieve revenue of nearly $6.5 billion, including $4.8 billion from the semiconductor equipment segment and $1.5 billion from the global services business segment. Applied Materials achieved a record revenue of $20.7 billion in 2023, with DRAM revenue reaching a record $4.3 billion; the company's market share in the DRAM sector increased by more than 10 percentage points. Looking ahead to 2024E, the company sees strong demand in the Foundry/Logic sector for advanced manufacturing processes, continued growth in NAND business demand, and strong DRAM business demand (with strong demand for HBM).
Risk warning: Demand for downstream terminals falls short of expectations, customer factory construction progress is slowing down, trade conflict between China and the US intensifies, R&D progress falls short of expectations, slow launch of new products, and intensification of market competition.