The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that high-voltage and intelligent fuses are the future direction, and that emerging markets, especially the NEV market, bring opportunities to break the game. In emerging markets, leading domestic enterprises are close to the starting point. In particular, in the domestic NEV fuse market, domestic companies lead the market share. The global NEV high voltage circuit fuse market is estimated to be 3.2 billion yuan in 2025. New energy vehicle high-voltage and intelligent drive fuse technology iterations, benefiting targets: China Fuse Electric (301031.SZ), Haoli Technology (002729.SZ), and Keboda (603786.SH).

Open source securities views are as follows:

Relying on long-term batch safety supply to form a brand effect, the traditional mature market pattern is relatively stable

Fuses are large value short circuit current protection devices with high breaking capacity. According to statistics from PauManokPublications Inc., the global fuse market size in 2019 was US$2.204 billion, CR 364%, CR 579% (revenue caliber), and the leading brands were concentrated in the US, Japan, and Europe. Judging from the distribution of downstream global fuse applications in 2019, electronics, industry, automobiles, and housing accounted for 35%, 31%, 23%, and 11% respectively. The main application fields of electronic fuses include various electronic products, household appliances, etc. Littelfuse, EATON (Bussmann), and Schurter account for the main share. Littelfuse, PEC, and EATON (Bussmann) account for the majority of automotive fuses used in low-voltage circuits in cars.

Emerging markets, especially the NEV market, bring opportunities to break the game

In emerging markets, leading domestic companies are close to the starting point of foreign-funded enterprises. In particular, in the domestic NEV fuse market, domestic companies lead the market share. According to data from the China Electric Vehicle 100 People's Association, China Fuse Electric's domestic market share for new energy vehicle fuses is 55% (2019, sales volume); according to the China Electric Vehicle Prospectus, Sinofuse Electric's market share in this field is about 40% (2019, sales volume). New energy vehicle fuse market entry barriers are high, verification cycle is long, degree of customization is high, and price sensitivity is not high. The bank estimates that the global NEV high voltage circuit fuse market will be 3.2 billion yuan in 2025.

Iteration of high-voltage and intelligent drive fuse technology for new energy vehicles

1) Excitation fuse: active protection, can adapt to high voltage DC and complex working conditions. The excitation fuse determines whether to start protection based on the data signal collected by the sensor, and not only the magnitude of the current determines whether to operate, so the excitation fuse can be quickly cut off when a small fraction of the fault current continues to be overloaded (suitable for collision and falling water scenarios). The trigger mechanism of an excitation fuse is similar to an airbag, and they all require quick response. Autoliv, whose main products are airbags, etc., introduced excitation fuse products earlier. However, companies with a background in fuse technology have a great advantage in terms of arc extinguishing capabilities. OEMs such as Tesla, Volkswagen, Daimler, and Geely have all begun to design or apply such products.

2) eFuse: Can be OTA, can recover automatically, and is more suitable for intelligent autonomous driving scenarios. eFuse (electronic fuse) is a semiconductor-based circuit protection component. It can recover on its own after starting break protection, and has faster protection speed, higher accuracy, and more complete protection functions, which is particularly important in autonomous driving scenarios. In addition, eFuse can adjust functional logic through programming and flashing, such as adjusting current limits, etc., to adapt to online upgrade requirements under the intelligent trend of new energy vehicles.

Beneficial targets:

(1) China Fuse Electric: The company leads the market share of new energy vehicle fuses, and incentive fuse products have been selected and targeted by many mainstream car companies at home and abroad. (2) Haoli Technology: The company's fuse products are mainly used in electronic fields such as household appliances, and focuses on developing emerging markets such as wind, light, storage, and new energy vehicles, and actively lays out and motivates fuse products. (3) Keboda: The company launched the smart fuse box eFUSE, and has now obtained project targets for several OEM-related models.

Risk warning: Competition in the fuse industry intensifies, new product development progress falls short of expectations, and downstream application progress falls short of expectations.