The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cinda Securities released a research report saying that the hydrogen energy industry is still in the early stages of development. There is plenty of room for green hydrogen production to reduce costs, and the future market prospects are broad. The electrolyzer market is expected to experience rapid growth. It is recommended to start with the hydrogen production equipment side and focus on companies such as Longji Green Energy (601012.SH), Huaguang Huaneng (600475.SH), and Huadian Heavy Industries (601226.SH).

▍ The main views of Cinda Securities are as follows:

The development of hydrogen energy is an important measure to achieve the country's “dual carbon” goal and build a new energy system.

Hydrogen energy comes from a wide range of sources, and has the advantages of high energy density, clean and pollution-free, flexible and efficient, wide range of application scenarios, and diverse storage and transportation methods. It is known as the “ultimate energy” of the 21st century. China joined the Paris Climate Agreement in 2016, and announced “double carbon” targets for carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 in 2020. As a major contributor to global carbon emissions, all industries in China are facing pressure to reduce carbon emissions, and using clean energy instead of fossil energy for power generation and hydrogen production is an important measure to achieve the country's “double carbon” goal.

In 2022, the “Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Medium- and Long-Term Plan (2021-2035)” made it clear that hydrogen energy is an important part of the future national energy system, and that the development of hydrogen energy is an important measure to build a new energy system; the 2023 “Hydrogen Energy Industry Standard System Construction Guidelines” systematically established a standard system for the entire hydrogen energy system, storage, transmission, and use at the national level, clarifying the next development plan for hydrogen energy and further promoting the comprehensive development of the hydrogen energy industry.

The hydrogen energy industry chain covers the system, storage, transportation and application, and the green hydrogen production process is expected to benefit first.

1) Preparation: Hydrogen energy is mainly divided into gray hydrogen, blue hydrogen, and green hydrogen. Among them, no carbon emissions are generated during the production of green hydrogen. It is expected that with the advancement of the “dual carbon” policy and continuous breakthroughs in green hydrogen production technology, green hydrogen energy is expected to become the main development direction in the future. The main production method for green hydrogen is hydrogen production from electrolyzed water. Among them, alkaline electrolyzed water hydrogen production technology is the most mature. PEM electrolyzed water hydrogen production technology is in the early stages of commercialization, and development prospects are broad.

2) Storage and transportation plus: Gaseous and low-pressure hydrogen energy storage and transportation technology is currently the mainstream of domestic development. In the future, it will develop according to the technical direction of “low pressure to high pressure” and “gaseous to multiphase”. The development of hydrogen fueling stations in China has begun to take shape, but due to insufficient maturity of technology and the lack of scale in the downstream market, etc., they are currently not economical.

3) Application: Currently, hydrogen energy is mainly used in traditional petrochemical production. It is expected that in the future, green hydrogen will be widely used in various fields such as transportation, energy storage, industry, and construction.

The price of green hydrogen is imminent, and it is expected that it will gradually become competitive in the market

1) Current cost of hydrogen production per unit: coal to hydrogen

< span= "" >2) With technological improvements and scale expansion, the cost of electrolyzer equipment will continue to decline. It is estimated that the cost of 1000 nm³/h alkaline electrolyzer equipment will drop from the current 8 million yuan/unit to 5 million yuan/unit in 2030, and the cost of 200 nm³/HPEM electrolyzer equipment will drop from the current 5.8 million yuan/unit to 2.19 million yuan/unit in 2030.

3) The cost of hydrogen production from electrolyzed water is greatly affected by the cost of electricity and operating time. It is expected that as the price of electricity decreases and the operating time of the electrolyzer increases, the cost of hydrogen production from electrolyzed water will drop drastically.

4) Judging that the unit cost of hydrogen production from alkaline electrolyzed water is expected to be equal to blue hydrogen around 2025 and gray hydrogen parity around 2030. If the impact of carbon taxes and government green hydrogen subsidies is taken into account, the green hydrogen price point is expected to move forward, and green hydrogen will gradually become competitive in the market.

Green hydrogen production is expected to exceed the planned target, and the future market space for electrolyzers is broad.

In 2022, China's hydrogen production was 4.04 million tons, an increase of 21% over the previous year. In 2022, the country's electrolyzer shipment volume was nearly 800 MW, doubling from 2021. The total number of tenders for electrolysis equipment in the first half of 2023 has exceeded 600 MW, with PEM electrolysis equipment accounting for an increase of 8 percentage points compared to 22, and demand for electrolyzers is expected to continue to double throughout the year in 2023. Green hydrogen production and demand are growing rapidly. It is expected that by 2025, China's demand for green hydrogen will reach 1.3 million tons, far exceeding the target of 100,000 to 200,000 tons of hydrogen production per year from renewable energy in the national hydrogen energy plan. By 2030, green hydrogen production will reach 7.7 million tons.

According to estimates, considering the situation where there are only alkaline electrolyzers in the market, the additional market space for electrolyzers will be about 6 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan respectively; with reference to overseas conditions, if the share of PEM electrolyzers in the domestic market is gradually increasing, and PEM electrolyzed water hydrogen production will increase to 40% of the total green hydrogen production by 2030, then the electrolyzer market space in 2025 and 2030 will be about 10 billion yuan and 30 billion yuan respectively.

Risk Factors:

Downstream hydrogen energy applications fall short of the expected risk, the risk of hydrogen energy-related technology falling short of expectations, the risk of policy fluctuations, and the risk of increased market competition.