[Editor-in-chief Guan Shi]

Hong Kong stocks closed the positive line for three consecutive days during the Spring Festival holiday period, and the Hang Seng Index had a cumulative increase of 3.77%. Overseas Chinese assets surged across the board during the Spring Festival.

The A-share market resumed opening this week. Driven by the continuous strengthening of Hong Kong stocks, it is the aspiration of the people. The key is to look at energy and new directions.

On Tuesday (February 20), the Central Bank of China will announce the February LPR quotation. Although MLF interest rates remained unchanged in February, there are still optimists who believe that LPR will decline and that there may be asymmetric cuts. The 5-year LPR interest rate decline may be greater than the 1-year LPR interest rate. If it actually declines, the market will undoubtedly be higher on the front line. Hong Kong stocks also have momentum to rise further, so real estate stocks can be taken seriously.

On Thursday (February 22), the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the January monetary policy meeting. Since January CPI both exceeded expectations year over year, the month-on-month increase in core CPI recorded the biggest increase in eight months. Therefore, expectations on the periphery are not strong.

On the positive side, domestic consumption is showing dynamism. According to data from Lighthouse Pro, the total box office of the 2024 Spring Festival program reached 7.844 billion, surpassing the 2021 Spring Festival program (7.843 billion), breaking the Spring Festival box office record in Chinese film history. Furthermore, during the Spring Festival, tourism markets in many parts of the country continued to be hot, and cultural tourism consumption potential in many regions was fully unleashed, and significant growth was achieved one after another. Related consumer categories are relatively well interpreted in the Hong Kong stock market.

It is worth noting that OpenAI's first video generation model, Sora, was released. It perfectly inherits the image quality and ability to follow instructions of DALL·E 3, and can generate up to 1 minute of high-definition video. In conjunction with Nvidia, the latest quarterly earnings will be announced this week. In the previous 20 quarters, Nvidia's performance in 19 quarters was superior to market expectations. If it exceeds expectations, related large models, computing power, optical modules, packaging, etc. are expected to work.

[This week's gold stocks]

IDEAL CAR (02015)

The “ID photo” of the Ideal L6 was unveiled for the first time. According to information, the new car is positioned as a mid-size five-seater SUV, smaller in size than the Ideal L7, and will be launched in April of this year. In January, Ideal Auto delivered a total of 31,165 new vehicles, an increase of 105.8% over the previous year.

Delivery of Ideal Auto increased month-on-month in the second half of January, and the performance was impressive. Since delivery, the cumulative number of Ideal Cars delivered has reached 664,529 units.

Last year, automobile production and sales both surpassed 30 million units for the first time, reaching a record high. Of these, 4.91 million units were exported, which is expected to become the world's number one automobile exporter. The company's cars have been exported to more than 200 countries and regions. Exports of new energy vehicles continued to contribute to the increase, and the retail share of own-brand passenger cars was 52% for the full year of 2023. Throughout 2023, with three SUV models, Ideal won the championship in SUV sales of 300,000 yuan or more in the Chinese market, and the champion in NEV sales of 300,000 yuan or more. In 2024, there will be 4 extended-range models and 4 pure electric models, and 8 highly competitive product combinations to meet the needs of home users. In March of this year, Home Technology's flagship MPV Ideal MEGA will be launched and delivered, and Ideal L7, Ideal L8, and Ideal L9 will also welcome 2024 models. At the same time, the ideal would be to significantly increase investment in R&D and continuously improve technical capabilities in the fields of intelligent driving, smart space, and smart electric power. Since this year, the ideal sales trend has begun to weaken, mainly due to market slowing down and increased competition. The price of its products has been reduced by 8% to 10%. The ideal indicates that with regard to the 2023 car purchase discount, on the one hand, it is to cope with the increasing price competition of the three luxury brands (Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi), and on the other hand, to begin the product renewal transition early through limited-time Lunar New Year preferential policies. The company will challenge to deliver 800,000 vehicles a year to achieve the goal of being the number one selling luxury car brand in the Chinese market.

[Industry Watch]

In 2024, the total box office of the Spring Festival program set the highest record in film history, reaching 8,016 billion yuan, an increase of 18.49% over the total box office of the Spring Festival program of 6.765 billion yuan in 23.

The number of valid days for the 2024 Spring Festival program is 8 days, 2 more days than in 23. If the box office statistics were taken using the same caliber, the total box office from the first to the sixth day of the New Year in '24 was 6.464 billion yuan, a decrease of about 4.15% compared to 6.745 billion yuan in '23. In addition, many Spring Festival film producers introduced ticket compensation strategies. Movie tickets under 50 yuan were reduced to 19.9 yuan, making the average ticket price for the Spring Festival program in '24 about 47.7 yuan, a decrease of nearly 4 yuan from '23. Lower ticket prices attracted incremental viewers. The number of movie viewers reached 164 million in 24 years, setting a record for the highest number of movies and TV during the Spring Festival.

Judging from the box office performance, “Hot and Hot” at 2,724 million yuan, “Flying Fast & Furious 2” at 2.04 billion yuan, and “The Bear Rises: Reversing Time and Space” ranked 1-3 billion yuan in the Spring Festival box office, accounting for 81% of the total box office, continuing the obvious trend of box office impact. In terms of film quality, the top 5 box-office movies all scored 7.7 points, up from 7.2 in '23.

Continuing the upward trend in the 2023 film market, the 2024 New Year's Day and Spring Festival box office set new film history records. Looking ahead to the film market in '24, the box office is expected to continue to grow under abundant film reserves and changes in branch distribution. Hong Kong stocks focus on Reading Group (00772), Alibaba Pictures (01060), and Maoyan Entertainment (01896).

[Data Watch]

According to data released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the total number of outstanding contracts in the Hang Seng Futures Index (February) was 130,424, and the net number of outstanding positions was 36,105. Hang Seng Futures refers to the settlement date of February 28, 2024.

Judging from the distribution of the Hang Seng Index Bull and Bear Street goods, at 16,340 points, the upper bearish stock concentration area is close to the central axis. The Spring Festival holiday is coming to an end, and good holiday spending shows that the holiday season has come to a successful end. The Hang Seng Index continued to be bullish this week.

[Editor-in-Chief's Testimonial]

When A-shares did not start during the holiday season, Hong Kong stocks continued to rise sharply, and some individual stocks reached high positions. Don't rashly go south and take over. You might as well watch more to see if it's a reversal or a rebound before taking action.

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