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Mercury General Corporation's (NYSE:MCY) Shares Leap 29% Yet They're Still Not Telling The Full Story

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 17 08:32

Despite an already strong run, Mercury General Corporation (NYSE:MCY) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 29% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 39% in the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Mercury General's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.6x is worth a mention when the median P/S in the United States' Insurance industry is similar at about 1x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:MCY Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 17th 2024

What Does Mercury General's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

Mercury General certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue more than most other companies. Perhaps the market is expecting this level of performance to taper off, keeping the P/S from soaring. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Keen to find out how analysts think Mercury General's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

Mercury General's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 27% last year. Revenue has also lifted 22% in aggregate from three years ago, mostly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the only analyst covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 13% over the next year. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 7.0% growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this information, we find it interesting that Mercury General is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It may be that most investors aren't convinced the company can achieve future growth expectations.

The Bottom Line On Mercury General's P/S

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Mercury General's P/S is back within range of the industry median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Looking at Mercury General's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior revenue outlook isn't giving the boost to its P/S that we would've expected. When we see a strong revenue outlook, with growth outpacing the industry, we can only assume potential uncertainty around these figures are what might be placing slight pressure on the P/S ratio. At least the risk of a price drop looks to be subdued, but investors seem to think future revenue could see some volatility.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 1 warning sign for Mercury General that we have uncovered.

If you're unsure about the strength of Mercury General's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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