What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Shenzhou International Group Holdings (HKG:2313) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.
What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on Shenzhou International Group Holdings is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.10 = CN¥3.6b ÷ (CN¥46b - CN¥12b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).
Therefore, Shenzhou International Group Holdings has an ROCE of 10%. That's a relatively normal return on capital, and it's around the 11% generated by the Luxury industry.
Above you can see how the current ROCE for Shenzhou International Group Holdings compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.
The Trend Of ROCE
When we looked at the ROCE trend at Shenzhou International Group Holdings, we didn't gain much confidence. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 20% over the last five years. However it looks like Shenzhou International Group Holdings might be reinvesting for long term growth because while capital employed has increased, the company's sales haven't changed much in the last 12 months. It's worth keeping an eye on the company's earnings from here on to see if these investments do end up contributing to the bottom line.
In Conclusion...
Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by Shenzhou International Group Holdings' reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. Since the stock has declined 24% over the last five years, investors may not be too optimistic on this trend improving either. On the whole, we aren't too inspired by the underlying trends and we think there may be better chances of finding a multi-bagger elsewhere.
If you're still interested in Shenzhou International Group Holdings it's worth checking out our FREE intrinsic value approximation to see if it's trading at an attractive price in other respects.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.