When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 17x, you may consider HighPeak Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:HPK) as an attractive investment with its 11.9x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.
With earnings that are retreating more than the market's of late, HighPeak Energy has been very sluggish. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to improve at all. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the market for P/E ratios like HighPeak Energy's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 20%. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 41% each year during the coming three years according to the four analysts following the company. With the market only predicted to deliver 10% per annum, the company is positioned for a stronger earnings result.
With this information, we find it odd that HighPeak Energy is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It looks like most investors are not convinced at all that the company can achieve future growth expectations.
The Key Takeaway
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
We've established that HighPeak Energy currently trades on a much lower than expected P/E since its forecast growth is higher than the wider market. There could be some major unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the positive outlook. It appears many are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with HighPeak Energy (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
You might be able to find a better investment than HighPeak Energy. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.