Key Insights

• Given the large stake in the stock by institutions, Progressive's stock price might be vulnerable to their trading decisions
• The top 19 shareholders own 51% of the company
• Analyst forecasts along with ownership data serve to give a strong idea about prospects for a business

Every investor in The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) should be aware of the most powerful shareholder groups. And the group that holds the biggest piece of the pie are institutions with 88% ownership. Put another way, the group faces the maximum upside potential (or downside risk).

And last week, institutional investors ended up benefitting the most after the company hit US$110b in market cap. One-year return to shareholders is currently 34% and last week's gain was the icing on the cake.

Let's take a closer look to see what the different types of shareholders can tell us about Progressive.

What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Progressive?

Institutions typically measure themselves against a benchmark when reporting to their own investors, so they often become more enthusiastic about a stock once it's included in a major index. We would expect most companies to have some institutions on the register, especially if they are growing.

We can see that Progressive does have institutional investors; and they hold a good portion of the company's stock. This suggests some credibility amongst professional investors. But we can't rely on that fact alone since institutions make bad investments sometimes, just like everyone does. It is not uncommon to see a big share price drop if two large institutional investors try to sell out of a stock at the same time. So it is worth checking the past earnings trajectory of Progressive, (below). Of course, keep in mind that there are other factors to consider, too.

Institutional investors own over 50% of the company, so together than can probably strongly influence board decisions. Hedge funds don't have many shares in Progressive. The company's largest shareholder is The Vanguard Group, Inc., with ownership of 8.8%. With 7.8% and 4.4% of the shares outstanding respectively, BlackRock, Inc. and JP Morgan Asset Management are the second and third largest shareholders.

After doing some more digging, we found that the top 19 have the combined ownership of 51% in the company, suggesting that no single shareholder has significant control over the company.

While it makes sense to study institutional ownership data for a company, it also makes sense to study analyst sentiments to know which way the wind is blowing. There are plenty of analysts covering the stock, so it might be worth seeing what they are forecasting, too.

Insider Ownership Of Progressive

While the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. Management ultimately answers to the board. However, it is not uncommon for managers to be executive board members, especially if they are a founder or the CEO.

Most consider insider ownership a positive because it can indicate the board is well aligned with other shareholders. However, on some occasions too much power is concentrated within this group.

Our data suggests that insiders own under 1% of The Progressive Corporation in their own names. Being so large, we would not expect insiders to own a large proportion of the stock. Collectively, they own US$334m of stock. It is always good to see at least some insider ownership, but it might be worth checking if those insiders have been selling.

General Public Ownership

The general public-- including retail investors -- own 12% stake in the company, and hence can't easily be ignored. While this group can't necessarily call the shots, it can certainly have a real influence on how the company is run.

Next Steps:

While it is well worth considering the different groups that own a company, there are other factors that are even more important.

Many find it useful to take an in depth look at how a company has performed in the past. You can access this detailed graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.

If you are like me, you may want to think about whether this company will grow or shrink. Luckily, you can check this free report showing analyst forecasts for its future.

NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.