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Is Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology InnovationLtd.Guangzhou (SZSE:000523) A Risky Investment?

Is Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology InnovationLtd.Guangzhou (SZSE:000523) A Risky Investment?

廣州紅棉智匯科技創新有限公司(深圳證券交易所代碼:000523)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  02/12 02:15

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology Innovation Co.,Ltd.Guangzhou (SZSE:000523) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

霍華德·馬克斯說得好,他說的不是擔心股價的波動,而是 “永久損失的可能性是我擔心的風險... 也是我認識的每位實際投資者所擔心的風險。”當我們思考一家公司的風險有多大時,我們總是喜歡考慮其債務的用途,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。我們注意到,紅棉智匯科技創新有限公司,Ltd.Guangzhou(深圳證券交易所代碼:000523)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但是,股東是否應該擔心其債務的使用?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務會帶來什麼風險?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

債務爲企業提供幫助,直到企業難以用新資本或自由現金流還清債務。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。但是,更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司爲了控制債務,必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東。但是,通過取代稀釋,對於需要資本以高回報率投資增長的企業來說,債務可能是一個非常好的工具。當我們研究債務水平時,我們首先將現金和債務水平放在一起考慮。

What Is Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology InnovationLtd.Guangzhou's Net Debt?

廣州紅棉智匯科技創新有限公司的淨負債是多少?

As you can see below, Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology InnovationLtd.Guangzhou had CN¥193.1m of debt at September 2023, down from CN¥265.5m a year prior. However, it does have CN¥1.17b in cash offsetting this, leading to net cash of CN¥974.1m.

如下所示,截至2023年9月,廣州紅棉智匯科技創新有限公司的債務爲1.931億元人民幣,低於去年同期的2.655億元人民幣。但是,它確實有11.7億元的現金抵消了這一點,淨現金爲9.741億元人民幣。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:000523 Debt to Equity History February 12th 2024
SZSE: 000523 2024 年 2 月 12 日債務與股本比率的歷史記錄

How Strong Is Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology InnovationLtd.Guangzhou's Balance Sheet?

廣州紅棉智匯科技創新有限公司的資產負債表有多強?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology InnovationLtd.Guangzhou had liabilities of CN¥351.6m due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥1.35b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥1.17b in cash and CN¥222.3m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥314.8m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

根據上次報告的資產負債表,廣州紅棉智匯科技創新有限公司的負債爲3.516億元人民幣,12個月後到期的負債爲13.5億元人民幣。與此相抵消的是,它有11.7億元的現金和2.223億元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,它的負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出3.148億元人民幣。

Given Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology InnovationLtd.Guangzhou has a market capitalization of CN¥5.18b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology InnovationLtd.Guangzhou also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology InnovationLtd.Guangzhou's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

鑑於廣州紅棉智匯科技創新有限公司的市值爲51.8億元人民幣,很難相信這些負債會構成很大的威脅。話雖如此,很明顯,我們應該繼續監控其資產負債表,以免情況惡化。儘管廣州紅棉智匯科技創新有限公司確實有值得注意的負債,但它的現金也多於債務,因此我們非常有信心它可以安全地管理債務。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,影響未來資產負債表狀況的是紅棉智匯科技創新有限公司的收益。因此,在考慮債務時,絕對值得一看收益趨勢。單擊此處查看交互式快照。

In the last year Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology InnovationLtd.Guangzhou had a loss before interest and tax, and actually shrunk its revenue by 3.2%, to CN¥2.5b. We would much prefer see growth.

去年,廣州紅棉智匯科技創新有限公司在利息和稅前出現虧損,實際收入減少了3.2%,至25億元人民幣。我們更希望看到增長。

So How Risky Is Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology InnovationLtd.Guangzhou?

那麼廣州紅棉智匯科技創新有限公司的風險有多大?

While Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology InnovationLtd.Guangzhou lost money on an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) level, it actually generated positive free cash flow CN¥188m. So although it is loss-making, it doesn't seem to have too much near-term balance sheet risk, keeping in mind the net cash. With revenue growth uninspiring, we'd really need to see some positive EBIT before mustering much enthusiasm for this business. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology InnovationLtd.Guangzhou that you should be aware of.

儘管廣州紅棉智匯科技創新有限公司在息稅前收益(EBIT)水平上虧損,但它實際上創造了1.88億元人民幣的正自由現金流。因此,儘管虧損,但考慮到淨現金,它似乎沒有太大的短期資產負債表風險。由於收入增長平淡無奇,在激發人們對這項業務的熱情之前,我們確實需要看到一些正的息稅前利潤。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。例如,我們已經確定了廣州紅棉智匯科技創新有限公司的一個警告標誌,你應該注意這個標誌。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

畢竟,如果你對一家資產負債表堅如磐石的快速成長型公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金增長股票清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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