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Guosen Securities' (SZSE:002736) Earnings Trajectory Could Turn Positive as the Stock Grows 4.6% This Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 11 20:56

Investors are understandably disappointed when a stock they own declines in value. But it's hard to avoid some disappointing investments when the overall market is down. The Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002736) is down 32% over three years, but the total shareholder return is -24% once you include the dividend. That's better than the market which declined 28% over the last three years. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 16% in the last three months. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 13% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.

While the last three years has been tough for Guosen Securities shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Guosen Securities saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 4.3% per year, over the last three years. The share price decline of 12% is actually steeper than the EPS slippage. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SZSE:002736 Earnings Per Share Growth February 12th 2024

Dive deeper into Guosen Securities' key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Guosen Securities's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Guosen Securities, it has a TSR of -24% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While it's never nice to take a loss, Guosen Securities shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 11% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 22%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 1.0% for each year. It could be that the business is just facing some short term problems, but shareholders should keep a close eye on the fundamentals. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Guosen Securities better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Guosen Securities (including 1 which shouldn't be ignored) .

We will like Guosen Securities better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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