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Ciwen Media Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:002343) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 31% Price Plummet

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 9 19:18

To the annoyance of some shareholders, Ciwen Media Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:002343) shares are down a considerable 31% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 34% in that time.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Ciwen MediaLtd's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 5x is worth a mention when the median P/S in China's Entertainment industry is similar at about 5.3x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SZSE:002343 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 10th 2024

How Has Ciwen MediaLtd Performed Recently?

Ciwen MediaLtd has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue at a solid pace. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to only keep up with the broader industry, which has keeping the P/S in line with expectations. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Ciwen MediaLtd will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Ciwen MediaLtd's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 27% last year. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen the company endure a nasty 22% drop in revenue in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 35% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Ciwen MediaLtd's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Ciwen MediaLtd's plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We find it unexpected that Ciwen MediaLtd trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with Ciwen MediaLtd.

If you're unsure about the strength of Ciwen MediaLtd's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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