Despite an already strong run, ASMPT Limited (HKG:522) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 25% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 26% in the last year.
Since its price has surged higher, ASMPT may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 39.9x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 8x and even P/E's lower than 4x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
With earnings that are retreating more than the market's of late, ASMPT has been very sluggish. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will turn things around completely and accelerate past most others in the market. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Is There Enough Growth For ASMPT?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like ASMPT's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 72%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year EPS growth is still a noteworthy 6.6% in total. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 33% per annum as estimated by the analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 16% each year growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we can see why ASMPT is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.
The Key Takeaway
ASMPT's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
As we suspected, our examination of ASMPT's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for ASMPT that you should be aware of.
If you're unsure about the strength of ASMPT's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.