As favorable policy factors continue to ferment, superposition sector and individual stock valuations have declined sharply, market expectations and institutional holdings have fallen to a low point, and the current sector allocation can be moderately positive.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Ping An Securities released a research report saying that real estate policies have recently been intensively introduced. In addition to first-tier cities successively optimizing purchase restrictions, the country's first batch of special loans for urban village renovation was issued, and the real estate financing coordination mechanism is also gradually being implemented. On the one hand, financing-side policy support is conducive to easing short-term liquidity pressure on the industry. On the other hand, a new round of local policy optimization is expected to stabilize the volume and price of regional property markets. As favorable policy factors continue to ferment, superposition sector and individual stock valuations have declined sharply, market expectations and institutional holdings have fallen to a low point, and the current sector allocation can be moderately positive.
Investment advice: In terms of individual stock investment, it is recommended to focus on high-quality housing enterprises with a low historical burden, such as Poly Development (600048.SH), China Merchants Shekou (001979.SZ), Yuexiu Real Estate (00123), Huafa (600325.SH), China Overseas Development (00688), Binjiang Group (002244.SZ), Vanke A (000002.SZ), etc.
Matters: The Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau issued a notice on optimizing the housing purchase restriction policy. The details of the optimized purchase restriction policy include: 1) families with domicile registration in the city (including households where some family members are registered residents of the city) are limited to purchasing 2 housing units; single adults with household registration in the city (including divorces) are limited to purchasing 1 housing unit; cancellation of the period of settlement and payment of personal income tax and social insurance period requirements; 2) families and single adults (including divorces) who are not registered in the city can continuously pay personal income tax or social insurance for 3 years before the date of purchase, limited to the purchase of 1 housing unit.
Ping An Securities's views are as follows:
Optimize the content of housing purchase restrictions and respond quickly to the Ministry of Housing and Construction's call:
On January 26, the Ministry of Housing and Construction held an urban real estate financing coordination mechanism deployment meeting, once again emphasizing adhering to city-specific policies, precise policies, and one-city-one policies, making good use of the policy toolbox, and fully empowering urban real estate regulation and control. Following the loosening of purchase restrictions in Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing Tongzhou, Shenzhen also responded positively to the call and joined the ranks of optimizing the purchase restriction policy. Shenzhen's previous property market policy was adjusted to reduce the down payment ratio for two homes and optimize the standard for certification of ordinary housing on November 23. According to China Index statistics, the city's monthly commercial residential turnover in December 2023 and January 2024 increased by 5% and 54.7%, respectively. However, the commercial housing clearance cycle is still expected to take 23.8 months, and continuous policy optimization is necessary.
The threshold for buying a home has been significantly lowered, and the implementation effect needs to be continuously observed:
The current optimization of Shenzhen's purchase restriction policy is mainly to abolish the requirement to provide personal tax or social security statements for 36 months or more after settling in for 3 years, and shortening the personal tax or social security limit requirement for non-domiciled residents/single adults from 5 years or more to 3 years to better meet residents' rigid and improved housing needs by lowering the restrictions on eligibility to buy homes. Referring to the further relaxation of purchase restrictions in Guangzhou on January 27, according to statistics from the China Index, commercial residential transaction value and transaction area in Guangzhou increased by 31.9% and 19% respectively in the week after the policy adjustment. It is expected that the current reduction in eligibility requirements for housing purchases in Shenzhen is expected to unleash a certain amount of purchasing power, but considering the current housing purchase restrictions, there is more concern about future income and housing price declines, and the effects of Shenzhen's purchase restriction policy adjustments need to be continuously monitored and observed.
Risk warning: 1) Property market repair falls short of expected risks; 2) Policy care falls short of anticipated risks; 3) Risk of individual housing companies' liquidity problems fermenting and chain effects exceeding expectations: if the extent of property market repair and policy effectiveness fall short of expectations, enterprises with high financial pressure still have debt defaults and rollover situations.