It's not a stretch to say that HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s (NYSE:HCA) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 15.7x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in the United States, where the median P/E ratio is around 16x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
The recently shrinking earnings for HCA Healthcare have been in line with the market. The P/E is probably moderate because investors think the company's earnings trend will continue to follow the rest of the market. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. At the very least, you'd be hoping that earnings don't accelerate downwards if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's not in favour.
How Is HCA Healthcare's Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like HCA Healthcare's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 2.4%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 76% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 10% each year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10% each year, which is not materially different.
In light of this, it's understandable that HCA Healthcare's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently shareholders are comfortable to simply hold on while the company is keeping a low profile.
What We Can Learn From HCA Healthcare's P/E?
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of HCA Healthcare's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook is contributing to its current P/E. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings won't throw up any surprises. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to support the share price at these levels.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for HCA Healthcare you should be aware of.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on HCA Healthcare, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.