The recent earnings posted by Good Times Restaurants Inc. (NASDAQ:GTIM) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. However the statutory profit number doesn't tell the whole story, and we have found some factors which might be of concern to shareholders.
Examining Cashflow Against Good Times Restaurants' Earnings
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
For the year to December 2023, Good Times Restaurants had an accrual ratio of 0.29. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow was a lot less than its statutory profit, which makes us doubt the utility of profit as a guide. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of US$3.4m, which is significantly less than its profit of US$10.7m. At this point we should mention that Good Times Restaurants did manage to increase its free cash flow in the last twelve months However, we can see that a recent tax benefit, along with unusual items, have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore its accrual ratio. The good news for shareholders is that Good Times Restaurants' accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Good Times Restaurants.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
Good Times Restaurants' profit suffered from unusual items, which reduced profit by US$1.5m in the last twelve months. If this was a non-cash charge, it would have made the accrual ratio better, if cashflow had stayed strong, so it's not great to see in combination with an uninspiring accrual ratio. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. In the twelve months to December 2023, Good Times Restaurants had a big unusual items expense. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit look worse than its underlying earnings power.
An Unusual Tax Situation
Moving on from the accrual ratio, we note that Good Times Restaurants profited from a tax benefit which contributed US$11m to profit. This is meaningful because companies usually pay tax rather than receive tax benefits. We're sure the company was pleased with its tax benefit. And since it previously lost money, it may well simply indicate the realisation of past tax losses. However, the devil in the detail is that these kind of benefits only impact in the year they are booked, and are often one-off in nature. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth. While we think it's good that the company has booked a tax benefit, it does mean that there's every chance the statutory profit will come in a lot higher than it would be if the income was adjusted for one-off factors.
Our Take On Good Times Restaurants' Profit Performance
Summing up, Good Times Restaurants' unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings were temporarily depressed, while its tax benefit is having the opposite effect, and its accrual ratio indicates a lack of free cash flow relative to profit. After taking into account all the aforementioned observations we think that Good Times Restaurants' profits probably give a generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, Good Times Restaurants has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.
Our examination of Good Times Restaurants has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.