The Zhitong Finance App learned that SDIC Securities released a research report saying that the Q4 fund's heavy home appliance shareholding ratio was 3.45%, up 0.37 pct from month to month; the ratio of overallocated home appliances was 1.34%, up 0.40 pct from month to month. Looking ahead, as domestic and foreign economies continue to recover and the capital market's expectations for household appliance consumption recover further, the household appliance holding ratio is expected to remain overallocated. Real estate policies have been marginally relaxed, and the bank expects quantitative changes to trigger qualitative changes and drive demand for air conditioning. Furthermore, the capital market is also beginning to show positive expectations about geopolitical relationships, and export-oriented enterprises are worth focusing on.

SDIC Securities views are as follows:

The proportion of active equity funds heavily stocked on home appliances continued to increase month-on-month: the bank analyzed the situation of active equity funds heavily stocked in home appliances based on the SDIC Home Appliance Division classification (Table 1). In Q4, the export boom of home appliances was high, and the high dividend rates of leading home appliances received market attention. The proportion of active equity funds heavily invested in the home appliance sector continued to rise. The Q4 Fund's shareholding ratio for heavy household appliances was 3.45%, up 0.37pct from month to month; the ratio of overallocated household appliances was 1.34%, up 0.40pct month-on-month. Looking ahead, as domestic and foreign economies continue to recover and the capital market's expectations for household appliance consumption recover further, the household appliance holding ratio is expected to remain overallocated.

The Q4 white electricity sector received an increase in fund allocation: the Q4 fund's heavy white electricity market value accounted for 1.60% of the total market value of the fund's heavy holdings, +0.10pct month-on-month; white electricity was overallocated by 0.62%, an increase of 0.13pct over the previous month. Among them, the ratio of the fund's heavy holdings in Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric was +0.26pct, +0.02pct, and -0.16pct month-on-month. The proportion of funds heavily invested in the white electricity sector has increased, mainly because the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is low, shipping prices have declined, and the competitiveness of white electricity export prices has increased. Combined with the low base for the same period last year, white electricity exports have continued to be booming; moreover, white electricity has received market attention. According to Industry Online, export shipments of Q4 air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines were YoY +22.8%, +63.5%, and +43.2%.

The Q4 fund increased the black electricity sector: the market value of the Q4 fund's heavy black electricity account for 0.55% of the total market value of the fund's heavy holdings, +0.18pct compared to the previous month. The panel price rebounded, and the ratio of the fund's heavy holdings in TCL Technology was +0.08pct month-on-month. The mini LED penetration rate is expected to increase, and the proportion of the fund's heavy holdings of Zhaochi shares will increase by 0.03 pct month-on-month.

The Q4 Fund reduced the allocation of small household appliances sector: The market value of the Q4 Fund's heavy holdings of small household appliances accounted for 0.52% of the total market value of the fund's heavy holdings, -0.02pct. The proportion of funds in the Q4 cleaning and small household appliances industry was -0.01pct month-on-month, mainly due to market concerns about the decline in the export sales growth rate of Q4 Stone Technology, and the ratio of the fund's heavy holdings was -0.01pct month-on-month. The Q4 small kitchen appliance industry fund stock ratio was -0.01pct month-on-month, mainly because the domestic small kitchen appliance market was low, and the market was concerned about Morphy's domestic sales performance, and the fund's heavy shareholding ratio of Xinbao shares was -0.02pct month-on-month.

Investment advice:

The air conditioner base pressure peak has passed. Although air conditioning is currently in low season, channel vendors are actively preparing goods, and the recovery of the backlog of demand in the early stages is still working. As the base level returned to normal, air conditioning data improved month-on-month, as evidenced by industry monitoring data and the annual operating data forecast disclosed by Gree. Real estate policies are marginally relaxed, and the bank expects quantitative changes to trigger qualitative changes and drive demand for air conditioning. Based on the valuation, the bank gave priority to recommending Midea Group (000333.SZ), Haier Smart Home (600690.SH), Gree Electric (000651.SZ), etc.

In addition, domestic demand for heat pumps is rising. Corresponding targets include Sunrise Oriental (603366.SH) and Inwalt (301272.SZ). The structural recovery trend in home appliance exports extends from large appliances to small household appliances. The capital market is also beginning to show positive expectations about geopolitical relationships, and export-oriented companies are worth focusing on, including Xinbao Co., Ltd. (002705.SZ), Stone Technology (688169.SH), and Vesync. In the long run, the home appliance export business will face a revaluation.

Risk warning: Public funds only disclose the top ten largest stocks, and there may be deviations from the actual total holdings statistics.