Shareholders might have noticed that Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE:BMY) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.9% to US$47.98 in the past week.       The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$45b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Bristol-Myers Squibb surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$3.86 per share, modestly greater than expected.     Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual.  So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

NYSE:BMY Earnings and Revenue Growth February 6th 2024

Following the latest results, Bristol-Myers Squibb's 25 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$45.9b in 2024. This would be a satisfactory 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months.       Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 5.3% to US$4.15.        Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$45.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.01 in 2024.        So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Bristol-Myers Squibb's earnings potential following these results.    

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$60.10, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation.        That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets.   The most optimistic Bristol-Myers Squibb analyst has a price target of US$85.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$41.00.   This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.    

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Bristol-Myers Squibb's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Bristol-Myers Squibb's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years.    Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 8.7% annually.  Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Bristol-Myers Squibb is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.    

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Bristol-Myers Squibb following these results.        On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry.       There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.  

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings.   We have estimates - from multiple Bristol-Myers Squibb analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Bristol-Myers Squibb that you need to be mindful of.  

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.