Guohai Securities released a research report stating that maintaining the JD Group-SW (09618) “buy” rating, considering the long-term macroeconomic recovery and continued progress of its 3P ecosystem construction and low price strategy, adjusted the company's 2023-2025 revenue forecasts to 10,765/11,463/12,116 billion yuan, net profit attributable to mother was 254/273/32.3 billion yuan respectively, and non-GAAP net profit to mother was 339/348/40.7 billion yuan, with a target price of HK$125.
The bank estimates that JD Group will achieve total revenue of 297.9 billion yuan (YoY +1%) in 2023Q4, of which product revenue is expected to be 235.1 billion yuan (YoY -1%) and service revenue is expected to be 62.9 billion yuan (YoY +9%); JD's retail revenue is expected to be 259 billion yuan (YoY +1%). The JD Group's net profit from non-GAAP is expected to be 7.1 billion yuan (YoY -8%) in 2023q4, and the non-GAAP net profit margin decreased by 0.2 pct to 2.4% year on year. Among them, JD's retail operating profit margin is expected to be 2.5%.
According to the report, according to data from the State Post Office and China Business Intelligence Network, the year-on-year growth rate of the national express delivery business volume in October/November/December 2023 was +22%/+28%, respectively. During the 2023 Double Eleven period (11.1-11.11), the national postal express delivery companies collected a total of 5.264 billion express parcels, an increase of 23.2% over the previous year. The average daily business volume was 1.4 times that of weekdays. The express delivery business volume during the “Double 11" period once again set a new record, effectively helping the consumer market resume expansion. The bank expects JD Logistics's revenue to increase 7% year-on-year to 45.8 billion yuan in 2023Q4, with an operating profit margin of 3%. It is optimistic about the long-term revenue stability advantage of JD Logistics as the leading self-operated supply chain model.