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State Energy Group International Assets Holdings Limited's (HKG:918) 34% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 5 17:45

Despite an already strong run, State Energy Group International Assets Holdings Limited (HKG:918) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 34% in the last thirty days. The last month tops off a massive increase of 223% in the last year.

Since its price has surged higher, when almost half of the companies in Hong Kong's Luxury industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.6x, you may consider State Energy Group International Assets Holdings as a stock not worth researching with its 4x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:918 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 5th 2024

How State Energy Group International Assets Holdings Has Been Performing

For instance, State Energy Group International Assets Holdings' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for State Energy Group International Assets Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, State Energy Group International Assets Holdings would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 21% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 24% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 12% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that State Energy Group International Assets Holdings is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From State Energy Group International Assets Holdings' P/S?

State Energy Group International Assets Holdings' P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of State Energy Group International Assets Holdings revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 5 warning signs for State Energy Group International Assets Holdings (2 are concerning!) that we have uncovered.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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