Unfortunately for some shareholders, the MECOM Power and Construction Limited (HKG:1183) share price has dived 46% in the last thirty days, prolonging recent pain. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 86% share price decline.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, MECOM Power and Construction may still be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.9x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 8x and even P/E's lower than 4x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
For example, consider that MECOM Power and Construction's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.
Is There Enough Growth For MECOM Power and Construction?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, MECOM Power and Construction would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 50% decrease to the company's bottom line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 3.0% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 21% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.
With this information, we find it concerning that MECOM Power and Construction is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Bottom Line On MECOM Power and Construction's P/E
There's still some solid strength behind MECOM Power and Construction's P/E, if not its share price lately. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
We've established that MECOM Power and Construction currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for MECOM Power and Construction (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to take into consideration.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than MECOM Power and Construction. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.