The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huafu Securities released a research report saying that in the process of commercialization, the advantages of composite fluid collectors were gradually amplified and became the preferred material for both safety and economy. According to the bank's estimates, if the global penetration rate of composite copper foil/composite aluminum foil reaches 15%/4% in 2025, it can meet demand of 2.8/1.2 billion square meters, and the two-year compound growth rate is 375%/235%. On the equipment side, according to neutral measurements, the market space for the one-step, two-step, and three-step composite copper foil methods is estimated to be 140/153/21.7 billion yuan, respectively. The bank believes that the current leading companies have clear advantages, that equipment manufacturers will be the first to benefit, and that progress on the material side may be underestimated.

Huafu Securities's views are as follows:

The composite fluid collector “sandwich” structure has the advantages of cost reduction, safety and efficiency, and promotes comprehensive innovation of traditional materials.

A composite fluid collector is a new technology for sandwich-structured lithium batteries made of “metal-base film-metal”. The base film uses polymer materials such as PET/PP/PI, and metal aluminum/copper is piled up on the upper and lower sides to make composite aluminum foil and composite copper foil and then used for battery positive and negative electrodes. Due to the physico-chemical properties of pure metal in traditional foils, the process side technology path is blocked due to the trend of thinning, so composite fluid collectors have emerged as new products. In the process of commercialization, the advantages of composite fluid collectors were gradually expanded and became the preferred material with both safety and economy. Among them: 1) Anode-composite copper foil (MC): It effectively improves safety, and has obvious advantages over composite aluminum foil in terms of total cost and high quality density. The theoretical unit cost is expected to be reduced by more than 22% compared to traditional electrolytic copper foil, and the commercial value is highly deterministic, which can solve the urgent problem of low energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries. 2) Cathode-composite aluminum foil (MA): The main focus is on improving battery safety, but there is limited room for cost reduction. The theoretical mass production cost is more than 4 times that of traditional aluminum foil. It is suitable for high-end application scenarios or where safety improvements are needed. Follow-up suggestions continue to focus on production costs and the popularity of industrialization.

The industry's 0-1 breakthrough is imminent, the equipment market space is considerable, and the focus is on process implementation.

Judging from the stage of development of the industry, it is currently in a large-scale technical verification period, and some benchmark companies, such as Chongqing Jinmei (midstream film company) MC products, have already been mass-produced and offline. According to the bank's estimates, if the global penetration rate of composite copper foil/composite aluminum foil reaches 15%/4% in 2025, it can meet demand of 2.8/1.2 billion square meters, and the two-year compound growth rate is 375%/235%. On the equipment side, according to neutral measurements, the market space for the one-step, two-step, and three-step composite copper foil methods is estimated to be 140/153/21.7 billion yuan, respectively.

The technical route continues to be optimized, and the PET+ two-step method is currently the mainstream.

Unlike the underlying logic of traditional foil manufacturing, the composite fluid collector uses a new coating process. Among them: 1) Composite copper foil (MC) still has route disputes, combining cost and efficiency considerations. Currently, the two-step method of magnetron sputtering and water electroplating is mainly used. 2) Composite aluminum foil (MA) is relatively determined. Using a one-step evaporation method, leading companies have achieved mass production. In terms of materials, PET is currently the comprehensive choice. Although PP is favored by battery manufacturers, production capacity constraints and adhesion problems may pose breakthroughs, and competitive landscape judgments may have large differences in expectations. On the equipment side, ultrasonic roller welding equipment has been added to the battery processing process, and the demand is clear; in the coating process, the domestic replacement process is accelerated. 2024 is expected to be a window period for technological route games, and it is expected that the prototype of industrialization will arrive.

Investment advice:

1) Upstream base film vendors: It is recommended to focus on Dongcai Technology (601208.SH), a leading insulating film material leader;

2) Upstream equipment vendors: Demand for roller welding machines is clear, and the competitive pattern for water electroplating equipment is clear. It is recommended to pay attention to Jiaocheng Ultrasound (688392.SH), Dongwei Technology (688700.SH), and Dawson Co., Ltd. (603800.SH);

3) Midstream film traders: Optimistic about companies currently leading in sample delivery progress, it is recommended to pay attention to Baoming Technology (002992.SZ).

Risk warning: The industrialization of composite copper foil falls short of expectations; the risk of new technology route substitution; sales of new energy vehicles falling short of expectations; the deterioration of the competitive landscape exceeds expectations; and there may be errors in cost estimates.