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What Kuke Music Holding Limited's (NYSE:KUKE) 58% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 3 07:27

Kuke Music Holding Limited (NYSE:KUKE) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 58% share price jump in the last month. The last month tops off a massive increase of 168% in the last year.

After such a large jump in price, given around half the companies in the United States' Entertainment industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.1x, you may consider Kuke Music Holding as a stock to avoid entirely with its 4.6x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:KUKE Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 3rd 2024

What Does Kuke Music Holding's Recent Performance Look Like?

For example, consider that Kuke Music Holding's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Kuke Music Holding, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as Kuke Music Holding's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 65%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 24% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 13% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Kuke Music Holding is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Kuke Music Holding's P/S

The strong share price surge has lead to Kuke Music Holding's P/S soaring as well. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We've established that Kuke Music Holding currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Plus, you should also learn about these 3 warning signs we've spotted with Kuke Music Holding (including 1 which is a bit concerning).

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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