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Revenues Not Telling The Story For Vericel Corporation (NASDAQ:VCEL) After Shares Rise 29%

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 2 05:07

Vericel Corporation (NASDAQ:VCEL) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 29% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 41% in the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Vericel's P/S ratio of 11.2x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Biotechs industry in the United States is also close to 13.5x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

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NasdaqGM:VCEL Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 2nd 2024

How Has Vericel Performed Recently?

Recent times haven't been great for Vericel as its revenue has been rising slower than most other companies. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to lift, which has kept the P/S from declining. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Vericel.

How Is Vericel's Revenue Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Vericel's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 16%. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow revenue by 57% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 24% per annum as estimated by the six analysts watching the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 228% growth each year, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Vericel's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From Vericel's P/S?

Vericel appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our look at the analysts forecasts of Vericel's revenue prospects has shown that its inferior revenue outlook isn't negatively impacting its P/S as much as we would have predicted. At present, we aren't confident in the P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Vericel that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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