Societe Generale Securities released a research report stating that it maintains Sinotruk's (03808) “buy” rating and predicts revenue of 898.7/958.79/109.127 billion yuan for 2023-2025, respectively, and net profit to mother of 52.91/54.70/6.675 billion yuan respectively. Sinotruk is an excellent truck manufacturer with independent R&D and manufacturing capabilities and a complete industrial chain. The bank believes that China's high ownership of heavy trucks will boost the industry's sales center, and that the continued increase in the share of logistics vehicles will lead to a cyclical weakening of the industry. The rapid growth of overseas business has helped the company cross the heavy truck industry cycle and maintain stable performance.
According to the report, according to the first commercial vehicle data, thanks to increased demand in overseas markets and a steady recovery in domestic heavy truck demand, China's heavy truck industry achieved sales volume of 911,000 vehicles in 2023, an increase of 36% over the previous year. Among them, Sinotruk achieved cumulative sales volume of 234,000 vehicles, an increase of 47% over the previous year, and a cumulative share of 25.7%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over the previous year. According to Sinotruk's announcement, by seizing market opportunities and continuously implementing product structure and business restructuring, the company achieved a significant increase in product sales volume, continued to increase the share of high-end products, and significantly increased profitability. The profit attributable to the company's owners in 2023 is expected to increase 200% to 240% (about 50.1-5.68 billion yuan) compared to 2022 (about 1.67 billion yuan).
The bank quoted the company's announcement that Sinotruk plans to grant no more than 27.6 million restricted shares to no more than 194 employees, accounting for about 1% of the total share capital at the time the plan was announced. The source of the shares granted this time was purchased by the company's authorized agency in the secondary market, and the grant price was RMB 6.896 per share. The restricted shares granted this time are unlocked in three installments after 24 months, 36 months, and 48 months from the date of grant, with unlocking ratios of 30%, 30%, and 40%, respectively. In addition, the corresponding enforcement conditions for the three unlocking periods are to achieve operating income of not less than 948, 1091, and 125.5 billion yuan in 2024 to 2026, respectively, and sales margins of not less than 7.5%, 8%, and 8.5% (that is, sales profit of not less than 71.1, 87.3, and 10.67 billion yuan), and the above indicators are not lower than the average performance level of the same industry in that year, and not lower than the level of the industry at the time of grant.