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Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As Jiangxi Tianli Technology, INC. (SZSE:300399) Shares Dive 25%

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 1 17:54

The Jiangxi Tianli Technology, INC. (SZSE:300399) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 25%. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 15% share price drop.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Jiangxi Tianli Technology's P/S ratio of 4.6x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Software industry in China is also close to 4.7x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SZSE:300399 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 1st 2024

How Jiangxi Tianli Technology Has Been Performing

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Jiangxi Tianli Technology over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Jiangxi Tianli Technology's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Jiangxi Tianli Technology's to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 16%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 16% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 35% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Jiangxi Tianli Technology's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Following Jiangxi Tianli Technology's share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

The fact that Jiangxi Tianli Technology currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Jiangxi Tianli Technology that you should be aware of.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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