You can invest in an index fund if you want to make sure your returns approximately match the overall market. But in any given year a good portion of stocks will fall short of that. Unfortunately for investors in CK Life Sciences Int'l., (Holdings) Inc. (HKG:775), the share price has slipped 39% in three years, falling short of the marketdecline of 32%. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 35% in a year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 25% in the last three months.
Since CK Life Sciences Int'l. (Holdings) has shed HK$481m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Although the share price is down over three years, CK Life Sciences Int'l. (Holdings) actually managed to grow EPS by 1.9% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
After considering the numbers, we'd posit that the the market had higher expectations of EPS growth, three years back. However, taking a look at other business metrics might shed a bit more light on the share price action.
With a rather small yield of just 1.5% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 3.3% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching CK Life Sciences Int'l. (Holdings) more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
If you are thinking of buying or selling CK Life Sciences Int'l. (Holdings) stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, CK Life Sciences Int'l. (Holdings)'s TSR for the last 3 years was -37%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 20% in the twelve months, CK Life Sciences Int'l. (Holdings) shareholders did even worse, losing 35% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 6% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with CK Life Sciences Int'l. (Holdings) (at least 2 which make us uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.