It's been a good week for PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 2.1% to US$105. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$16b and statutory earnings per share of US$11.72. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on PulteGroup after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from PulteGroup's 13 analysts is for revenues of US$16.9b in 2024. This would reflect an okay 5.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$11.94, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$16.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.41 in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.
With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 5.4% to US$118per share. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PulteGroup at US$138 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$85.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await PulteGroup shareholders.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that PulteGroup's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 5.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while PulteGroup's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around PulteGroup's earnings potential next year. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for PulteGroup going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for PulteGroup that you should be aware of.
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