This article is from: National Bureau of Statistics

On January 31, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's official manufacturing PMI for January was 49.2, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point; and the composite PMI output index was 50.9%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.

The manufacturing purchasing managers' index rebounded

In January, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the level of manufacturing sentiment rebounded.

In terms of enterprise size, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point; the PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 48.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point; and the PMI for small enterprises was 47.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point.

Looking at the classification index, out of the five classification indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index and supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employee index are below the critical point.

The production index was 51.3%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in production sentiment in the manufacturing industry.

The new orders index was 49.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in demand in the manufacturing market.

The raw material inventory index was 47.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that stocks of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to decline.

The employee index was 47.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in employment sentiment in manufacturing enterprises.

The supplier delivery time index was 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing industry continues to accelerate.

Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that in January, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly to 49.2%, and the boom level improved.

(1) The expansion of the production index is accelerating. The production index was 51.3%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, to a four-month high. From an industry perspective, the production index for the food, alcohol, beverage, refined tea, paper, education, sports and entertainment products, medicine and other industries is above 53.0%, and production in related industries is expanding rapidly; production indices for industries such as chemical raw materials and chemicals, chemical fibers, rubber and plastic products, and non-metallic mineral products are in a contraction range, and enterprise production activities are slowing down.

(2) The index of new orders has rebounded. The new orders index was 49.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the index of new export orders reflecting external demand rose 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the demand sentiment within and outside the market improved. Looking at key industries, the new order indices for the equipment manufacturing industry, high-tech manufacturing industry, and consumer goods industry were 50.3%, 50.2%, and 50.3% respectively, all above the critical point; the new order index for the high-energy industry was 47.0%, which continues to be below the critical point, and market demand is still insufficient.

(3) The PMI of large enterprises rose to the expansion range. The PMI for large enterprises was 50.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The survey results showed that the capacity utilization rate of more than 70% of large enterprises reached or exceeded 80.0%, and enterprises released production capacity faster; the PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 48.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, improving the level of sentiment; the PMI for small enterprises was 47.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The level of prosperity was low.

(4) Business expectations are generally stable. Affected by the approach of the Spring Festival holiday and the entry of some industries into the traditional off-season of production, the expected index of production and operation activity is 54.0%, which continues to be in the expansion range. The overall confidence of enterprises in future market development is stable. From an industry perspective, the expected index of production and operation activities in industries such as pharmaceuticals, special equipment, automobiles, railway ships, and aerospace equipment is in a high boom range of 56.0% or more, and enterprises are more optimistic about recent market development.

The expansion of the non-manufacturing business activity index has accelerated

In January, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating that the non-manufacturing industry continued to expand steadily.

By industry, the index of business activity in the construction industry was 53.9%, down 3.0 percentage points from the previous month; the index of business activity in the service sector was 50.1%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. From an industry perspective, the index of business activity in industries such as railway transportation, postal services, monetary and financial services is in a high boom range of 60.0% or above; the index of business activity in capital market services, real estate, ecological protection, and public facilities management is below the critical point.

The new orders index was 47.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the decline in demand in the non-manufacturing market continued to narrow. By industry, the new orders index for the construction industry was 46.7%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous month; the index of new orders for the service sector was 47.7%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.

The input price index was 49.6%, the same as last month, and is still below the critical point, indicating that the overall level of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities continues to fall. By industry, the construction industry input price index was 52.0%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the service industry input price index was 49.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

The sales price index was 48.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the overall level of non-manufacturing sales prices. By industry, the sales price index for the construction industry was 50.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month; the sales price index for the service industry was 48.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

The employee index was 47.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in the employment sentiment of non-manufacturing companies. By industry, the index of workers in the construction industry was 50.1%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month; the index of workers in the service sector was 46.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

The expected business activity index was 59.7%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. It is still in a high boom range, indicating that non-manufacturing companies are optimistic about recent market developments. By industry, the expected index of business activity in the construction industry was 61.9%, down 3.8 percentage points from the previous month; the expected index of business activity in the service sector was 59.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

Zhao Qinghe said that in January, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the non-manufacturing industry continued its steady expansion trend.

(1) The index of business activity in the service sector rose to an expansion range. The index of business activity in the service sector was 50.1%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the sentiment level has rebounded. From an industry perspective, 13 of the 21 industries surveyed are in the expansion range, an increase of 4 over the previous month, and the service industry has expanded. Driven by the holiday effect, residents' willingness to travel and spend increased, and the index of business activity in retail, road transport, air transport, catering and other industries rose to an expansion range, and market activity rebounded; the index of business activity in the railway transportation, postal service, monetary and financial services industries was all in a high boom range of 60.0% or above, and the total business volume grew rapidly. At the same time, the index of business activity in capital market services, real estate and other industries is running low, and the level of prosperity is weak. Looking at market expectations, the expected business activity index is 59.3%, which is basically the same as last month. It continues to be in a high boom range, and service companies have stable confidence in the market development prospects.

(2) The index of business activity in the construction industry declined somewhat. Affected by factors such as low temperatures in winter and the proximity of the Spring Festival holiday, the construction industry entered a low construction season. The index of business activity was 53.9%, down 3.0 percentage points from the previous month. Judging from market expectations, the expected business activity index is 61.9%, which continues to be in a high boom range, indicating that construction companies have strong confidence in market development.

The composite PMI output index continues to expand

In January, the composite PMI output index was 50.9%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, are 51.3% and 50.7%, respectively.