Guoxin Securities (Hong Kong) released a research report stating that in January-December 2023, PV added 216.88GW of installed capacity, +148.12%, and wind power added 75.9GW of installed capacity in January-December, +101.7%. Driven by the rush to install at the end of the year, the installed scale of PV and wind power reached record highs in 2023. The bank raised the forecast for new PV installations in 2024 from 215 GW to 240 GW, an increase of 10.6% over the previous year. The bank believes that as new policies to accelerate the development of renewable energy continue to be introduced in various regions of the world, it is expected that the global wind power and photovoltaic market will continue to grow steadily in the future.
Guoxin Securities (Hong Kong) views are as follows:
The scale of new PV and wind power installations reached a record high in 2023.
From January to December 2023, PV added 216.88GW of installed capacity, +148.12% year-on-year. In December, PV added 53 GW of installed capacity, +144.24% year over year and +148.59% month over month. In January-December, 75.9GW of wind power was added, +101.7% compared with the same period last year. In December, wind power added 34.51 GW of installed capacity in a single month, +101.7% year over year and +745.83% month over month. Driven by the rush to install at the end of the year, the installed scale of photovoltaics and wind power reached a record high in 2023. Judging from monthly data, the new PV and wind power installations in December all greatly exceeded market expectations, fully reflecting the stimulus effect of the current decline in industrial chain prices on terminal demand.
Domestic and foreign policies continue to promote the rapid development of the new energy industry.
On December 7, 2023, the State Council issued the “Action Plan for Continuous Improvement of Air Quality”, which requires non-fossil energy consumption to reach about 20% and electricity to account for about 30% of terminal energy consumption by 2025. On December 14, the 198 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change reached the “UAE Consensus” at COP28, keeping the goal of keeping global warming within 1.5℃ within an achievable range, and proposed a new goal of doubling renewable energy by 2030. The bank believes that there are endless policies at home and abroad to promote the development of the new energy industry represented by photovoltaic power generation around the goal of dual carbon, and the industry is still in a period of rapid development.
Global demand for photovoltaic and wind power installations is growing at a high rate.
(1) The bank raised its forecast for new PV installations in 2024 from 215 GW to 240 GW, an increase of 10.6% over the previous year. In 2024-2025, demand for new installed capacity in the European PV market is expected to remain stable, and the Middle East, the US and other markets may maintain a relatively rapid growth rate. Global PV installations are expected to maintain a growth rate of about 25%/20% in 2024-2025, and the new installed capacity is expected to reach 475/570 GW, respectively. In 2024-2025, due to the high base effect, it is expected that China's new PV installations will maintain a growth rate of about 10%. In 2024/2025, the scale of new PV installations in China is expected to be 240/260 GW, respectively. (2) It is estimated that the new installed scale of global wind power will reach 125/135GW in 2024-2025. In 2024-2025, it is estimated that China's new wind power capacity will be around 72 GW per year, including 60 GW for land wind and 12 GW for sea wind.
Recommended attention:
1) Longyuan Electric Power (00916), a new energy power operator that has benefited from rapid growth in the installed scale of new energy sources and is currently undervalued;
2) Huaneng International Power (00902), China Resources Power (00836), China Electric Power (02380), etc. from traditional power operators to clean energy operators;
3) Industry leaders after silicon price adjustments and industrial integration, such as GCL Technology (03800) and Xinte Energy (01799).
Risk warning: Policy implementation falls short of expectations; new installed capacity falls short of expectations; and feed-in tariffs have dropped sharply.