Shareholders might have noticed that Marten Transport, Ltd. (NASDAQ:MRTN) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.9% to US$19.28 in the past week. Revenues of US$1.1b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$0.86, missing estimates by 3.9%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what expert is forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for Marten Transport
After the latest results, the one analyst covering Marten Transport are now predicting revenues of US$1.16b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 2.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$0.85, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analyst had been modelling revenues of US$1.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.01 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$24.50 price target, showing that the analyst doesn't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Marten Transport's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 10% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Marten Transport is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analyst downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the Marten Transport Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.