Boltek Holdings Limited (HKG:8601) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 22% is also fairly reasonable.
After such a large jump in price, Boltek Holdings may be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 8x and even P/E's lower than 4x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
Boltek Holdings has been doing a decent job lately as it's been growing earnings at a reasonable pace. It might be that many expect the reasonable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Check out our latest analysis for Boltek Holdings
Does Growth Match The High P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Boltek Holdings would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 4.1% gain to the company's bottom line. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 36% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 22% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.
With this information, we find it concerning that Boltek Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
Boltek Holdings' P/E is getting right up there since its shares have risen strongly. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that Boltek Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Boltek Holdings (of which 1 is a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Boltek Holdings. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.