Investors in The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.8% to close at US$178 following the release of its yearly results. Revenues were US$62b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$6.58 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 17%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for Progressive
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Progressive from twelve analysts is for revenues of US$71.6b in 2024. If met, it would imply a notable 15% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 27% to US$8.36. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$69.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.21 in 2024. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a small lift in to revenue forecasts.
It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of US$180, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to Progressive's valuation in the near term. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Progressive, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$244 and the most bearish at US$114 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Progressive's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 15% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 11% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.2% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Progressive to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Progressive going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also see whether Progressive is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.