Shareholders might have noticed that D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.2% to US$142 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$7.7b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 2.3% to hit US$2.82 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for D.R. Horton
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from D.R. Horton's 19 analysts is for revenues of US$36.7b in 2024. This reflects an okay 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$14.14, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$36.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.18 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$160, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic D.R. Horton analyst has a price target of US$192 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$130. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that D.R. Horton's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than D.R. Horton.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that D.R. Horton's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for D.R. Horton going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for D.R. Horton you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.