It can certainly be frustrating when a stock does not perform as hoped. But it can difficult to make money in a declining market. The Guoyuan Securities Company Limited (SZSE:000728) is down 17% over three years, but the total shareholder return is -10% once you include the dividend. That's better than the market which declined 26% over the last three years.
So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
View our latest analysis for Guoyuan Securities
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Guoyuan Securities actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 3.1% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
After considering the numbers, we'd posit that the the market had higher expectations of EPS growth, three years back. But it's possible a look at other metrics will be enlightening.
Revenue is actually up 12% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating Guoyuan Securities further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Guoyuan Securities' TSR for the last 3 years was -10%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While it's never nice to take a loss, Guoyuan Securities shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 5.2% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 20%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 3% for each year. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Guoyuan Securities better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Guoyuan Securities (1 is significant) that you should be aware of.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.