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Shareholders in Shanxi Securities (SZSE:002500) Are in the Red If They Invested Three Years Ago

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 25 17:11

Investors can earn very close to the average market return by buying an index fund. In contrast individual stocks will provide a wide range of possible returns, and may fall short. Unfortunately for investors in Shanxi Securities Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002500), the share price has slipped 31% in three years, falling short of the marketdecline of 26%.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.

View our latest analysis for Shanxi Securities

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the three years that the share price fell, Shanxi Securities' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 4.2% each year. The share price decline of 12% is actually steeper than the EPS slippage. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SZSE:002500 Earnings Per Share Growth January 25th 2024

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Shanxi Securities' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Shanxi Securities, it has a TSR of -27% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Although it hurts that Shanxi Securities returned a loss of 12% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 20%. Given the total loss of 0.3% per year over five years, it seems returns have deteriorated in the last twelve months. Whilst Baron Rothschild does tell the investor "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", buyers would need to examine the data carefully to be comfortable that the business itself is sound. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Shanxi Securities better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Shanxi Securities , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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