It's been a good week for United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 7.8% to US$40.84. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$54b and statutory earnings per share of US$7.89 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that United Airlines Holdings is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on United Airlines Holdings after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for United Airlines Holdings
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for United Airlines Holdings from 19 analysts is for revenues of US$56.7b in 2024. If met, it would imply a reasonable 5.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 14% to US$9.13. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$56.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.24 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$61.47, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on United Airlines Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$98.00 and the most bearish at US$38.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of United Airlines Holdings'historical trends, as the 5.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 5.8% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 7.4% annually. So although United Airlines Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that United Airlines Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for United Airlines Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for United Airlines Holdings you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.