According to a research report released by Southwest Securities, considering that the industry is in a period of rapid development, Novartis Health (06606) products have a significant volume of sales. The estimated revenue for 2023-2025 is 20.2/33.8/5.03 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 163.7%/67.7%/48.7%, respectively. The company's revenue forecast for 2023 is 19.8-2.05 billion yuan (+158.9%-168.2%); gross profit is expected to be 1.81 billion yuan (+179.9%-190%) in 2023; it is expected to turn a loss into a profit in the first year of 2023, with a total cash repayment of 1.42 billion yuan.
According to the report, the company's 2023 performance continued to exceed expectations, and the volume and price of the three major products rose sharply. Among them, Chang Weiqing's high performance is mainly due to the following reasons: 1) increased awareness of early screening for colorectal cancer in China; 2) expanded coverage of provincial pricing guidelines and hospital admissions; 3) Driven by increasing adoption of doctors in covered hospitals; 4) Increased share of clinical channels with high factory unit prices, becoming Chang Weiqing's largest revenue source. In 2023, Chang Weiqing's clinical channel revenue is expected to be 441,000 copies, achieving revenue of 650 million yuan, accounting for 54.6% of Chang Weiqing's total revenue. In 2023, Chang Weiqing's clinical channel revenue mainly came from private hospitals and clinics, and the share of revenue from H2 public hospitals increased dramatically in 2023H2. Private hospitals, clinics, and public hospitals will account for 57.4%, 24.5%, and 9.6% of clinical channels in 2023, respectively. Public hospital channels are expected to increase in volume in the future.