The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huaxi Securities released a research report stating that looking ahead to 2024, the expectation of an oversupply of lithium salt has become an industry consensus. Demand for lithium salt terminals has yet to improve, compounded by expectations of oversupply. The loose supply and demand situation is difficult to change in the short term. The bank determined that lithium prices in the market may maintain a downward trend. The suspension of the Finniss project indicates that the current high cost mines are more likely to be hit. Based on the above reasons, the bank recommends focusing on companies with lower cost curves in the industry and there will still be an increase in supply in the next 2-3 years. It is recommended to focus on Yongxing materials (002756.SZ), which have a 100% self-sufficiency rate of lithium mica raw materials, benefiting from Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ), Salt Lake (000972.SZ), and Zangge Mining (000408.SZ).
According to data from China's General Administration of Customs, China imported 203,000 tons of lithium carbonate in December, up 86.98% year on year and 19.34% month on month. In January-December, China imported a total of 158,700 tons of lithium carbonate, an increase of 16.65% over the previous year. The average monthly import volume was 13,200 tons. The December import volume was higher than the monthly average. In December, China's lithium hydroxide export volume was 12,300 tons, up 40.91% year on year and 19.42% month on month. From January to December, the total domestic export volume of lithium hydroxide was 130,000 tons, up 39.17% year on year. The average monthly export volume was 10,800 tons. The export volume of lithium hydroxide in December was higher than the average monthly export volume level.
Domestic lithium carbonate prices remained stable this week. According to the Baichuan Weekly Report, on the demand side, the first quarter was an off-season for lithium carbonate consumption combined with downstream cathode companies and terminal battery manufacturers not ideal for de-stocking; it is still in the process of being removed from storage. On the supply side, close to the Spring Festival, some lithium salt factories began to shut down production and go on vacation one after another. Production in large factories is basically stable. It is necessary to start the holidays on the same day as the Spring Festival, and the overall supply is still excessive. According to the SQM announcement on January 15, from now on, after clearing roads previously blocked by the community, its business at Atacama Salt Lake will gradually resume and is expected to resume normal operations on the same day. Considering that the indigenous community is sparse and their protests in Atacama last less than a week, the bank believes that the incident may not have much substantial impact on SQM or have little impact on global supply.
The main views of Huaxi Securities are as follows:
In December, lithium carbonate imports were 203,000 tons, up 19.34% from the previous month
According to data from China's General Administration of Customs, China imported 203,000 tons of lithium carbonate in December, up 86.98% year on year and 19.34% month on month. In January-December, China imported a total of 158,700 tons of lithium carbonate, an increase of 16.65% over the previous year. The average monthly import volume was 13,200 tons. The December import volume was higher than the monthly average. In December, Shanghai imported 14,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year increase of 217.35% and a decrease of 1.99% month-on-month. Shanghai Port accounted for 68.67% of imports in December, a decrease of 14.95pct from November. Shanghai accounted for 74.10% of imports in January-December. Shanghai Port is currently the most important import port for lithium carbonate in China.
In December, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 12,300 tons, a decrease of 19.42% over the previous month
According to data from China's General Administration of Customs, in December, China's lithium hydroxide export volume was 12,300 tons, up 40.91% year on year and 19.42% month on month. From January to December, the total domestic export volume of lithium hydroxide was 130,000 tons, up 39.17% year on year. The average monthly export volume was 10,800 tons. The export volume of lithium hydroxide in December was higher than the average monthly export volume level.
Lithium hydroxide is mostly exported to Japan and South Korea, accounting for about 95.24% of exports to Japan/South Korea in December
In December, China exported a total of 11,900 tons of lithium hydroxide to Asian countries, accounting for 96.47%, a decrease of 0.60 pct over the previous month. Exports to Europe were 432.61 tons, accounting for 3.51%, up 0.84 pcts from month to month; South Korea and Japan accounted for 9591.67 tons and 2162.70 tons respectively in December, accounting for 77.71% and 17.52% of total exports, respectively, with changes of -1.45 pct and 1.00 pct, respectively. In January-December, China mainly exported lithium hydroxide to the Asian region. Asian countries totaled 125,800 tons, accounting for 96.78%. Among them, South Korea and Japan exported 93,600 tons and 31,000 tons respectively, accounting for 72.02% and 23.82% of total exports, respectively. According to data from Korea's General Administration of Customs, in December, South Korea imported a total of 12,000 tons of lithium hydroxide, of which 80.10% was imported from China. In January-December, South Korea imported a total of 117,700 tons of lithium hydroxide, of which 78.19% was imported from China. China is still South Korea's largest exporter of lithium hydroxide.
In December, Australia's Port Hedland exported a total of 102,700 tons of lithium concentrate, +35.74%, month-on-month +10.21% According to Pilbara Ports Authority data, in December 2023, Port Hedland in Australia exported 102,700 tons of lithium concentrate, +35.74% year-on-month, +10.21%, unexported raw ore; in December, Australia's Port Hedland lithium concentrate was exported to China, -3.37%, -21.55% month-on-month, and 71.2% of lithium concentrate exported to China; compared with the previous 11 What is different about the monthly export situation of 0 tons of concentrate to South Korea is that 29,600 tons of concentrate were exported to South Korea in December, accounting for 28.8% of lithium concentrate exported to South Korea. From January to December 2023, Port Hedland, Australia exported a total of 1,161,300 tons of lithium concentrate, +46.89%, with no raw ore exports; in January-December, Australia's Port Hedland lithium concentrate was exported to China, +51.65%, accounting for 97.45% of lithium concentrate exported to China; in January-December, Australia's Port Hedland lithium concentrate was exported to South Korea, accounting for 2.55% of lithium concentrate exported to South Korea.
Risk warning: 1) The growth rate of global demand for lithium salt fell short of expectations; 2) Australia's Wodgina mine exceeded expectations; 3) the commissioning progress of the new project in Salt Lake in Argentina exceeded expectations; 4) the release of lithium mica concentrate in Yichun exceeded expectations; 5) too many unofficial project inflows; 6) global electric vehicle sales fell short of expectations; 7) the growth rate of global energy storage fell short of expectations.