The Zhitong Finance App learned that Haitong Securities released a research report saying that according to the WeChat account of Qunzhi Consulting, the prices of ROLED and FOLED mobile phone panels increased sequentially in January 2024. Entering the first quarter, demand for ROLED continued to grow steadily, and the relaxed supply and demand environment was greatly improved. Along with mass production of new projects, the price of rigid OLED panels is expected to gradually rebound. Moreover, terminal demand for FOLED panels is still active, and domestic panel factories' production capacity is still relatively tight. As a result, flexible OLED panels will seek a new round of price adjustments in the first quarter. The bank believes that the OLED supply and demand situation is expected to improve further as the industry enters the peak season.
Recommended attention: OLED industry chain companies such as Vicino (002387.SZ), BOE A (000725.SZ), TCL Technology (000100.SZ), Olaide (688378.SH), and Wright Optoelectronics (688378.SH).
Haitong Securities views are as follows:
OLED phone panel prices rose in January.
According to the WeChat account of Qunzhi Consulting, the price of ROLED and FOLED mobile phone panels increased sequentially in January 2024. Entering the first quarter, demand for ROLED continued to grow steadily, and the relaxed supply and demand environment was greatly improved. Along with mass production of new projects, the price of rigid OLED panels is expected to gradually rebound. Moreover, terminal demand for FOLED panels is still active, and domestic panel factories' production capacity is still relatively tight. As a result, flexible OLED panels will seek a new round of price adjustments in the first quarter. The bank believes that the OLED supply and demand situation is expected to improve further as the industry enters the peak season.
The penetration rate of folding screens continues to increase, and OLED screens are gradually being used for medium sizes.
According to TrendForce Jibang Consulting's WeChat account, it is estimated that the shipment volume of folding phones in 2023 will be about 18.3 million units, an annual increase of 43%, accounting for only 1.6% of the 2023 smartphone market. Shipments in 2024 are expected to increase 38% year over year, to about 25.2 million units, and the market share will increase to 2.2%. The bank believes that as the penetration rate of folding screens increases, OLED panel production capacity will be further digested. Furthermore, compared to other display technologies, OLED display has good display effect, fast response speed, low energy consumption, lighter and thinner, and variable shape. The bank believes that the penetration rate of OLEDs in medium sizes will also continue to increase.
The share of domestic OLED panels has increased, and Vicino's operating rate has remained at a high level.
With the release of production capacity and the increase in product strength of domestic OLED panel manufacturers, terminal brands continue to increase their localization power, and domestic OLED panel manufacturers maintained rapid growth in shipments. In the third quarter of 2023, mainland OLED panels shipped about 734 billion pieces, an increase of 75.0% over the previous year, accounting for 44.3% of the global market share. According to the WeChat account of Qunzhi Consulting, in the 23Q3 single quarter, BOE and Vicente ranked among the top three in the world, with a market share of 16.6%/10.3% respectively. The bank believes that as the global share of domestic smartphone terminal brands continues to increase, domestic OLED panel manufacturers will also benefit.
Risk warning: OLED panel price increases fell short of expectations; terminal demand recovery fell short of expectations; industry competition intensified.