Guohai Securities released a research report saying that AI big model inference and training is expected to drive AI computing power demand, and AI chip vendors and server manufacturers are expected to continue to benefit.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guohai Securities released a research report saying that AI big model inference and training is expected to drive AI computing power demand, and AI chip vendors and server manufacturers are expected to continue to benefit. Maintain a “recommended” rating for the computer industry. According to the revised guidelines for ultra-microcomputers, net sales for FY2024Q2 are expected to be US$36-3.65 billion (previously US$27-2.9 billion). The bank believes that AI servers will meet or exceed expectations.
Related companies: 1) Complete servers: Industrials Fulian (601138.SH), Inspur Information (000977.SZ), Zhongke Shuguang (603019.SH), Ziguang (000938.SZ), Huaqin Technology (603296.SH), Shenzhou Digital (000034.SZ), Fenghuo Communications (), Great Wall of China (000066.SZ), Hi-Tech Development (000628.SZ). 600498.SH
2) Server components: ① AI chip: Haiguang Information (688041.SH), Cambrian (688256.SH), Longxin Zhongke (688047.SH); ② Cooling: Feirongda (300602.SZ), Zhongke Shuguang (), Invec (002837.SZ), Tongfei Co., Ltd. (300990.SZ), Shenling Environment (301018.SZ), Collan (300499.SZ). 603019.SH
Incident: On January 18, ultra-microcomputers raised FY2024Q2 guidelines: FY2024Q2 net sales are expected to be US$36-3.65 billion (previously US$27-2.9 billion), and diluted EPS is US$4.90-5.05 (previously US$3.75-4.24). This is due to strong demand for server racks, artificial intelligence, and IT solutions.
Guohai Securities's views are as follows:
Ultramicrocomputer: FY24Q1 AI and rack performance increased year-on-year, global AI server demand improved
Ultra-micro computer FY24Q1's revenue was US$2.120 billion, up 14% year on year and -3% month on month. Among them, server and storage system business revenue was US$1,967 billion, +15% year over year and -3% month on month, accounting for 93%. Q1 performance increased year on year, mainly due to continued growth in demand for AI-related systems and racks. On January 18, ultra-microcomputer guidelines were raised. Net sales for FY2024Q2 are expected to be US$36-3.65 billion (previously US$27-2.9 billion). The bank believes that the AI server will meet or exceed expectations.
Ultramicrocomputers adapt to the acceleration of delivery of new NV products+ production lines, reflecting the improvement in global demand for AI servers and racks. Ultramicrocomputers actively adapt to the new NV GH200 and GraceCPU, and develop LLM-optimized NVIDIA HGX 8-GPU solutions, etc. In November 2023, ultra-microcomputers said they can deliver 5,000 racks per month, striving to shorten delivery times and meet the urgent implementation requirements of artificial intelligence and hyperscale data centers.
AI chips: Demand for NVs and other chips is strong, and TSMC's expansion of production is expected to ease supply shortages
Demand continues to be strong: Meta expects to reach 600,000 H100 computing power in 2024, and NV is actively developing the Chinese market. On January 18, Meta CEO Zuckerberg stated that it plans to obtain about 350,000 H100 blocks by the end of 2024. If other GPUs are included, the total computing power is close to 600,000 H100 computing power. According to Interface News on January 20, CEO Huang Renxun visited the North Shenzhen office during the week and visited mainland China for the first time after a lapse of several years. According to foreign media on January 9, Nvidia plans to begin mass production of AI chips specially made in China in 2024Q2. The H20 is the strongest model among them. Supply is expected to ease: According to the Financial Federation, TSMC is speeding up the construction and expansion of the sealing and testing plant, and production capacity is expected to reach 17,000 wafers in January 2024Q. In 2024, the monthly production capacity of CoWOS packaging increased quarterly, eventually reaching 26,000-28,000 wafers. AMD, Nvidia, etc. are its main customers.
AI servers: expected to increase by 20-30% per year in the future, servers in mainland China may benefit from mass production of H20
In 2024-2026, AI servers are expected to increase by 20%-30% per year. According to Trendforce, AI servers increased 38% year over year in 2023. From 2024-2026, it is estimated to maintain a high annual growth rate of 20%-30%. IFF said that with 2023Q1-Q3, the company's GenAI (CPU+GPU) server revenue doubled, and GenAI server revenue increased exponentially for three consecutive quarters. Nvidia's partners in China are expected to benefit from mass production of chips such as the H20. The bank believes that after the new US export control regulations in 2023, the price of AI servers in mainland China will increase, or boost profit levels. If improved chips such as the H20 are mass-produced in the future, server manufacturers may face performance+valuation restoration.
Risk warning: The macroeconomy affects downstream demand, the development of large models falls short of expectations, market competition intensifies, the game between China and the US intensifies, and related companies' performance falls short of expectations, etc.