The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhongtai Securities released a research report saying that looking back, wind power added 37.63 GW of installed capacity in 2022, YOY -21%. Among them, the ocean wind was also affected by the military and falling demand. Some projects were delayed from connecting to the grid. In '22, Haifeng added 5.16 GW (hoisting caliber), and YOY -64%. In 2023, land wind was affected by the central inspection team, and the sea wind was affected by military/waterways, etc., so the recovery in new wind power installations fell relatively short of expectations. In the first three quarters of '23, 33.5 GW of domestic wind power was added, of which 31.9 GW was added, and Sea Wind added 1.53 GW of installed capacity. In this context, the fundamentals of the wind power sector subsequently ushered in an inflection point improvement.

▍ The main views of Zhongtai Securities are as follows:

Domestic sea breezes are recovering, and overseas demand is progressing in parallel:

Domestic demand is booming, and in the context of delays, it is expected to increase rapidly in 24-25:

Industry bidding data: The winning amount for offshore wind turbines in 2023-2023 is 20.56GW, corresponding to 23-24 years of digestion. Assuming about 6GW of seabreeze installed capacity in 2023, the remaining 24-year seabreast is 14-15GW (considering the risk of delays in construction of some projects, the conservative estimate is still 10GW+).

The pace of approval is speeding up, and the certainty of demand is expected to improve:

Pre-bidding for the #广东区域：青州六风机基础已在制作中，青州五七提交海域论证报告，省管7GW已有3 .5GW project was initiated, of which 1GW has been approved. #广西区域：防城港A场址23年底首批并网，钦州项目已核准并开启EPC招标。 #海南区域：华能临高600MW开工，海南CZ2、儋州一期以及海南东方CZ8有望年初开工; #福建区域：连江外海核准报批并已完成风机招标，福建平潭A区开启风机招标。 #浙江区域：8个项目在23年核准，同时部分开始海域论证公示。

The #江苏区域：2 .65GW competition projects have all been approved. Dafeng 800MW has recently begun offshore survey operations, and construction is expected to begin in early '24. #上海区域：800MW竞配陆续启动招标，其中，奉贤海上风电场二期已取得用海预审批复。 #山东区域：国华半岛南U2场址海上风电二期项目 (298MW) and the 450MW EIA approval for the Shandong Haiwei Peninsula South U site project, Shandong Energy's Bozhong offshore wind power G site approved and completed the fan/submarine cable tender, and the Three Gorges Shandong Muping BDB6 #续建 (Phase II) project is progressing steadily.

Under high targets, overseas installed demand is gradually being released:

According to GWEC forecasts, Europe will add a total of 157 GW of offshore wind power installations from 2023 to 2032, and Europe has a large planned capacity for offshore wind power. The UK/Germany/Netherlands plan to reach 50//30/22GW in 2030; the development potential for offshore wind power in North America is huge; the US plans to install 30/110GW of seabreeze by 2030/2050; countries in the Asia-Pacific region such as Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam are rich in marine resources, and future expectations will further contribute to global ocean wind growth.

Investment advice:

Focus on the main lines of the strategy between the two seas to benefit from increased demand for ocean breezes+the link of going out to sea to create growth:

[Sea Cable] Link: Demand for high-voltage grades and flexible submarine cables is rising under the deep-sea trend. Technology+production+location+performance qualifications build high barriers. The competitive pattern is relatively clear. The release of production capacity by leading companies and overseas expansion drives order growth. In addition, second- and third-tier companies are expected to gain a certain share in the new domestic seabreeze market.

[Tower/Pile Foundation] Link: The trend of ocean breezes makes the basic unit usage of fans relatively strong. Combining the head to accelerate production expansion and establish entry barriers to increase industry concentration. In addition, focusing on the basic supply and demand of overseas fans, domestic companies have followed the trend and entered the promising high-quality market.

[Casting and forging parts] link: Forgings (spindles) have an excellent pattern and stable profit; demand for castings is increasing in the context of ocean wind emissions, and large megawatt production capacity matches increase competitiveness.

The [gearbox] link matches changes in fan technology routes, rising market demand, and the relative concentration of leading global market shares is expected to fully benefit.

Focus on domestic alternative main lines:

[Bearing] link: Rolling bearing production capacity conversion is progressing smoothly and gradually being introduced domestically. Gearbox sliding bearings have obvious cost advantages in the context of fan cost reduction restrictions, further providing new opportunities for domestic replacement.

Risk warning:

New wind power installations fall short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; business development of related targets falls short of expectations; measurement data is biased; there is a risk that public data used in the research report will lag behind or not be updated in a timely manner.