The Zhitong Finance App learned that Orient Securities released a research report saying that at this stage, travel product reservation data is growing rapidly year on year, even exceeding the same period in '19. The winter vacation and Spring Festival holiday travel market is expected to show high prosperity. At the same time, the winter vacation season for students from all over the world will gradually warm up, and the winter season will gradually warm up, catalyzing the early interpretation of the Spring Festival market. It is recommended to focus on Jiuhua Tourism (603199.SH), which has a lower valuation within the sector, the Sante Ropeway (002159.SZ), which is the target of governance improvements; Songcheng Performing Arts (300144.SZ); Huangshan Tourism (600054.SH), which targets traffic improvement catalysts; and other famous mountains and holiday destinations such as Mount Emei A (000888.SZ).
▍ The main views of Orient Securities are as follows:
The airline forecast data and travel reservation data exceeded expectations, and the travel market is expected to be booming during the winter vacation and Spring Festival holidays.
According to the Civil Aviation Administration's forecast, during the 2024 Spring Festival travel season (January 26 to March 5, for a total of 40 days), the country's civil aviation passenger traffic is expected to reach 80 million passengers, an average of 2 million passengers per day, +9.8% compared to the Spring Festival travel season in '19 and +44.9% compared to the Spring Festival travel season in '23. According to Ctrip data, as of January 13, domestic, outbound, and inbound travel orders during the Spring Festival holiday all increased dramatically.
Among them, the “North-South Exchange” for snow and ice tours in the North and Southern Hot Springs are popular for domestic travel. During the Spring Festival, travel orders increased more than 7 times over the same period last year; orders for outbound and inbound tours all increased more than 10 times over the same period last year. The popularity of tourism in the northern city of Harbin continued from New Year's Day to the Spring Festival holiday, climbing from not entering the top ten in 2023 to fifth place in 2024, and travel bookings increased more than 14 times over the same period last year. Meanwhile, the year-on-year increase in travel orders for winter vacation cities preferred by tourists from the north, such as Sanya and Kunming, increased by more than 2 times and 6 times, respectively.
During the Spring Festival, orders for snow and ice tourism products increased more than tenfold year on year. Most popular destinations are northern cities, including Harbin, Mudanjiang, Changchun, and Baishan. At this stage, travel product reservation data is growing rapidly year on year, even exceeding the same period in '19. The winter vacation and Spring Festival holiday travel market is expected to be booming. At the same time, winter vacations for students from all over the world begin this week, and the winter season is gradually warming up, catalyzing early interpretation of the Spring Festival market.
Public equity holdings in the scenic area sector are low, or have ushered in a return to average.
In the tourism and leisure sector (excluding tax exemptions), the total market value of public fund holdings was $118/62/69/8.3 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 0.74%/0.37%/0.50%/0.58% of the market value of stock investment, respectively. The market value of reported positions in 2023 was $9 billion, accounting for 0.18% of the market value of stock investment;
The common equity+partial share hybrid fund sector's holdings fell from 10.4 billion in 2016 to 6.8 billion yuan in the mid-year report. The share of holdings in the stock investment market value fell from 0.92% in 2016 to 0.20% of the 23 mid-year report, which is already at an all-time low. The 23 annual report situation is expected to be the same as the 23 mid-year report; it is expected that along with the popularity of tourism data in the beginning of the year, the boom across industries will be favored by institutions, and the fund allocation ratio will increase or bring in excess income.
Against the backdrop of China's aging population, the silver hair economy is expected to enter the fast track of development.
According to estimates, it is estimated that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the total number of elderly people aged 60 and above will exceed 300 million, accounting for more than 20%, and enter a stage of moderate aging. Around 2035, the elderly population aged 60 and above will exceed 400 million, accounting for more than 30% of the total population, entering a stage of severe aging. The trend of population aging is accelerating, and the retirement group will expand in the future. A large number of wealthy and leisure underage elderly people will enrich the tourist consumer base, smooth out differences during the off-peak tourist season, and improve the performance of scenic spot companies.
The “Opinions on Developing the Yinfa Economy and Enhancing the Welfare of the Elderly” issued by the General Office of the State Council today proposes to promote the development of industrial clusters and plan the layout of about 10 high-level Yinfa economic and industrial parks. Promote brand development and cultivate leading enterprises in the Yinfa economy. Carry out high-standard pilot actions and carry out standardized pilot projects in fields such as old-age services and age-appropriate rehabilitation. Broaden consumer supply channels, guide e-commerce platforms and large supermarkets to host themed shopping festivals, and support the establishment of Yinfa Consumer Zone. Support or accelerate the introduction of relevant policies in the future to benefit consumption related targets for the elderly.
Risk warning
Consumption recovery fell short of expectations, natural disasters affected, and public health emergencies.