The Zhitong Finance App learned that the research report issued by Huatai Securities said that the market market process and daily high-frequency data for the electricity market in Shandong Province in 2023, which ranks the highest in the country in terms of electricity market-based installed capacity, was used as a starting point to quantitatively disassemble the market's concerns about the impact of market-based electricity prices on the profitability of thermal power and new energy sources. It is recommended to focus on more stable and controllable types of electricity, such as thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power; focus on industrial and commercial energy storage.

The main views of Huatai Securities are as follows:

Question 1: Taking Shandong as an example, what impact do market-based price fluctuations have on the revenue of electric companies?

Although new energy has not yet been forced to enter the market, it has brought about duck curve characteristics and price fluctuations in the spot market by influencing the e-commerce bidding space. Take the trading results of the Shandong electricity market for the full year of 2023. Although spot electricity prices fluctuated greatly, the annual average drop compared to medium- to long-term electricity prices was only 3% (2 points/degree). Judging from the volatility, the average daily electricity price standard difference in the medium- to long-term market is less than 1 cent/degree, while the average daily electricity price standard deviation in the spot market is more than 15 minutes/degree. By locking in medium- to long-term contracts (over 90% of settlement volume), electricity companies can be provided with a “ballast stone” of revenue, while spot market transactions (accounting for less than 10% of settlement volume) act as price signals, while reflecting the two-way impact of new energy sources on the electricity supply and demand curve.

Question 2: What is the impact of the entry of new energy into the market on one's own income?

According to Shandong's 2023 hourly spot electricity price and photovoltaic wind power output curve, the bank estimates that if 10% of the centralized new energy is settled at the spot price, the annual weighted average electricity price of Shandong PV is about 382 yuan/megawatt-hour, which is 13 yuan/megawatt-hour lower than the benchmark price and 29 yuan/megawatt-hour higher than the average price of thermal power; the average annual weighted average electricity price of wind power in Shandong is about 391 yuan/megawatt-hour, which is 3.5 yuan/megawatt-hour lower than the benchmark electricity price, and 3.5 yuan/megawatt-hour lower than the benchmark price The price of electricity is 39 yuan/megawatt-hour higher. The bank estimates that if the total amount of electricity from new energy is settled according to spot electricity prices, the annual weighted average electricity price of Shandong PV is about 261 yuan/megawatt-hour, which is 134 yuan/megawatt-hour lower than the benchmark electricity price, and 92 yuan/megawatt-hour lower than the average spot price of thermal power, mainly due to the high degree of coincidence between the peak photovoltaic output and the low electricity price in the afternoon. Due to the peak output of wind power during the evening period when electricity prices are higher, the annual weighted average electricity price of wind power is still 360 yuan/megawatt-hour under the same measurement method, which is only 35 yuan/megawatt-hour lower than the benchmark electricity price; on the contrary, it is 7 yuan/megawatt-hour higher than the current average electricity price of thermal power. Under extreme circumstances, considering that some provinces currently use benchmark electricity prices as the highest limit on new energy prices, weighted electricity prices for photovoltaics and wind power will be further reduced by 26 and 53 yuan/megawatt-hour, which will have a greater impact on wind power.

Question 3: Leaving aside extreme negative electricity prices, what should energy storage arbitrage space actually look at?

Judging from the current actual trading model in Shandong, neither recent nor real-time trading has achieved continuous intraday trading quotes. As a result, electrochemical energy storage cannot use its ability to flexibly start and stop arbitrage in the real-time market, and relies more on operators to predict electricity supply and demand in advance. The bank found that in 2023, the peak and valley electricity prices in the Shandong market showed different characteristics in different seasons. If energy storage operators adopt a fixed time period trading strategy for the whole year (13 point charging with the highest probability of peak electricity and 18 point discharge with the highest probability of peak electricity), the average annual daily peak and valley arbitrage space is 310 yuan/megawatt-hour; if the operator's trading strategy is refined to monthly fixed period transactions (monthly charging and discharging with the highest probability of peak electricity), the average annual daily peak and valley arbitrage space can be increased to 16 yuan/26 trillion yuan/3 trillion yuan Watt-hours; if further approved by the operator Professional tools optimize forecasting accuracy. Under the most optimistic circumstances, the average daily peak and valley arbitrage space can be increased by up to 106 yuan to 433 yuan/megawatt-hour per day, showing that trading software can help operators increase yield in the electricity market.

Question 4: How will users join the market different from power generation companies?

As can be seen from the Shandong market, for chemical commercial users in the direct electricity purchase market in 2023, electricity prices will conduct monthly changes in electricity prices on the power generation side; while industrial and commercial users participating in the market as grid agents, the bank estimates that the electricity purchase cost is 5% higher than the medium- to long-term electricity transaction price and 8% higher than the recent power generation side clearance price in the electricity spot market, so direct electricity purchases are more attractive to industrial and commercial users. In addition, the biggest peak and valley price difference for industrial and commercial electricity purchases reached 870-930 yuan/megawatt-hour, which is beneficial to industrial and commercial energy storage.

Risk warning: The construction of a new power system falls short of expectations; the development of innovative business falls short of expectations; risk of deviation between profit prediction assumptions and reality.