In the context of continued policy support, the penetration of autonomous driving is accelerating, and leading car companies are expected to benefit first.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report saying that looking forward to 2024, new car reserves will be abundant, and advanced smart driving will be implemented at an accelerated pace. Companies will accelerate the implementation of advanced smart driving functions. Huawei ADS 2.0, Ideal AD Max 3.0, and Xiaopeng XNGP will all support unmanned valet parking technology, and Tesla FSD is also likely to be introduced domestically. The implementation of advanced intelligent driving capabilities of leading car companies in mass production will achieve a benchmarking effect and accelerate the intelligent iteration of the industry. In the context of continued policy support, the penetration of autonomous driving is accelerating, and leading car companies are expected to benefit first.
Recommended attention: 1) Vehicle sector: segment β+ new car+autonomous driving, Xiaopeng Motor - W (09868), Changan Automobile (000625.SZ), Ideal Auto - W (02015), Cyrus (601127.SH),; 2) Autonomous driving: Keboda (603786.SH), Desai Xiwei (002920.SZ), Jingwei Hengrun-W (688326.SH), Tuopu Group (), etc. 601689.SH
Guosheng Securities's views are as follows:
By promoting new cars, paving channels, and reinventing research and development, new forces forge ahead.
In 2023, price cuts for Tesla and Dongfeng drive price competition in the industry. Players such as Huawei and Xiaomi also entered the market in the second half of the year. New power brands achieved good sales results through major new car launches, price/equity adjustments, and the opening of advanced smart driving functions. Among them, Ideal achieved sales of 376,000 vehicles in 2023, +182% over the same period, while NIO and Xiaopeng were +31% and +17%, respectively. At the same time, the investment layout of early channels and R&D began to enter the harvesting stage, which combined cost reduction and efficiency, and the scale effect led to marginal improvement in profitability.
Support policies continue to be introduced, and car companies are speeding up the launch of city NOA.
In terms of policy, Shanghai, Beijing and other places have opened autonomous driving test roads, 2023Q4, and four ministries and commissions requiring L3 and L4 intelligent connected vehicles with mass production conditions to launch road tests within a limited area. BYD, Changan, Cyrus, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, etc. have continuously obtained L3 road test licenses. The installation rate of Tesla FSD continues to increase in North America. Recently, the V12 version of the FSD was launched in North America, which can achieve end-to-end autonomous driving; various domestic car companies are speeding up the implementation of urban NOA. Xiaopeng Huawei is relatively ahead of schedule, and has already started a no-map model in many regions. As a benchmark model for autonomous driving in China, the smart driving version of Xiaopeng G6, G9, and Wenjie M7 orders is the absolute main force. As intelligent iteration accelerates, car companies are expected to begin to switch from hardware vehicle construction to a software ecosystem, change profit models, and increase brand stickiness.
Looking ahead to 2024: New car reserves are abundant, and advanced smart driving is being implemented at an accelerated pace.
The production capacity climb of Xiaopeng and Ideal has ended, and production capacity restrictions have been lifted, and it is expected that volume will be accelerated. MPV models such as the Xiaopeng X9 and Ideal Mega will be launched in the first half of the year, and many new cars will be launched in the second half of the year, improving the product matrix, and the market share is expected to continue to increase. Companies will accelerate the implementation of advanced smart driving functions. Huawei ADS 2.0, Ideal AD Max 3.0, and Xiaopeng XNGP will all support unmanned valet parking technology, and Tesla FSD is also likely to be introduced domestically. The implementation of advanced intelligent driving capabilities of leading car companies in mass production will achieve a benchmarking effect and accelerate the intelligent iteration of the industry. In the context of continued policy support, the penetration of autonomous driving is accelerating, and leading car companies are expected to benefit first.
Risk warning: The progress of policy implementation falls short of expectations, the implementation of new models and new factory projects falls short of expectations, and industry demand falls short of expectations.