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首创证券:冰雪游热度高企 出行板块景气提升

Capital Securities: Snow and ice tours are popular, and the business travel sector is booming

Zhitong Finance ·  Jan 11 00:52

Snow and ice tours are popular in the winter of 2024, and the popularity of travel continues. It is expected that demand for domestic medium- to long-term domestic tours and outbound travel during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday will continue to grow.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Pioneer Securities released a research report saying that the popularity of snow and ice tours in the winter of 2024 is high, and the popularity of travel continues. It is expected that demand for domestic medium- and long-term travel and outbound travel during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday will continue to grow. Winter tourism focuses on the two major travel themes of snow and ice tours and hot springs, focusing on Changbai Mountain (603099.SH) and Tianmu Lake (603136.SH); at the same time, demand for outbound travel is picking up at an accelerated pace. Driven by the continuous resumption of international flights and improved convenience, outbound travel orders have increased dramatically, focusing on Zhongxin Travel (002707.SZ), the leading outbound travel leader. In addition, we are about to enter the annual report performance period. Leading medical, aesthetic and cosmetics performance is expected to lead the industry and is expected to reverse undervaluation. It is recommended to focus on Aimeike (300896.SZ) and Perea (603605.SH).

The views of Capital Securities are as follows:

Harbin has become an emerging influencer city, and snow and ice tourism is very popular.

Since the New Year's Day holiday, the popularity of tourism in Harbin has continued to rise. According to data from the Harbin Municipal Administration of Culture, Radio, Television, and Tourism, during the New Year's Day holiday, Harbin received a total of 3,0479 million visitors, achieving total tourism revenue of 5.914 billion yuan. Harbin Airport transported 205,000 passengers, an increase of 27% over the same period in 2019. All figures reached record highs. The popularity of tourism in Harbin on the Tongcheng travel platform rose 240% month-on-month, ranking fourth in the national travel popularity list, after Beijing, Chongqing and Guangzhou. Taking advantage of the boom in snow and ice tourism, Harbin uses online platforms to “create stories”, and uses short videos and other media traffic to fully activate the province's tourism resources to provide visitors with a richer and more participatory travel experience. Winter vacation is expected to further drive the growth of the travel market, and it is optimistic that the popularity of snow and ice tours will continue to grow.

In 2024, the target for international civil aviation flights returned to 80% before the pandemic.

According to the Civil Aviation Administration, the target for 2024 is to complete total transportation turnover, passenger traffic, and cargo and mail traffic of 136 billion tonkilometers, 690 million passengers, and 7.6 million tons for the whole year, up about 14%, 11%, and 3%, respectively. The target annual domestic passenger traffic will exceed 7.7% in 2019. The international passenger transport market will recover at an accelerated pace. It is expected to recover to about 80% of pre-epidemic passenger traffic by the end of 2024, strengthening international cooperation, including promoting a sharp increase in direct flights between China and the US, expanding air rights arrangements with the “Belt and Road” countries, and optimizing visa and immigration policies. Various airlines and airports are also focusing on increasing the resumption of international flights. In 2023, the scale of passenger traffic on domestic routes has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, an increase of 1.5% over 2019, and is recovering the fastest among all types of transportation.

Passenger flow at Hainan Airport: In January '24, Haikou Meilan Airport operated a total of 4,176 flights, +0.72% compared to last week, +42.28% year over year, recovering to 125.14% in the same period in 2019; passenger flow was 557,500, -2.77% compared to last week, +49.00% year over year, and recovered to 116.06% in the same period in '19. Since the beginning of the month, Hainan Sanya Phoenix Airport has operated a total of 2,211 flights per week, +0.59% over the previous week, or +1.75%, or about 99.24% in the same period in 2019; passenger traffic was 381,000, -3.82% over the previous week, and +8.35% over the same period, recovering 100.65% from '19.

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